CAJ | 학술논문

青藏高原高寒草地为重要的生态脆弱区，也是3大无人区自然保护区可可西里、羌塘和阿尔金山所在地，由于缺乏气候监测站点，气候变化研究较少。基于自然保护区周边16个气象站点资料，通过1957─2011年逐年的日气候资料，利用3种模型分析了该区域气温与`降水量的时间变化趋势，并利用综合了降水与温度的降水蒸散指数（SPEI）分析了干旱演变的趋势，同时利用Kriging插值法，分析了3大保护区的气候变化的差异。结果表明，近55年以来，最高、最低气温和年平均气温上升趋势明显，Mann-Kendall 趋势分析达到极显著性水平，年平均温度增长率为0.71℃/10a。进一步比较了区域平均值法、线性模型与指数模型3种方法下降水量的变化趋势，结果表明，直线模型拟合的结果数值最高，指数模型的变异最大，而平均值法数值低于直线模型拟合的结果，指数模型能够更好的模拟降水量与海拔之间的关系，年平均降水量波动较大，20世纪60年代开始逐渐增加，70年代中期有所下降，但总体上呈现增加的趋势，Mann-Kendall 分析趋势显著。降水增加量约为10 mm/10a。SPEI指数表明，近50年来，保护区呈现总体由干向湿发展的趋势。自然保护区内降水量，气温与变幅差异较大，可可西里、羌塘与阿尔金山的气温的平均值分别为1.9、15.4和6.0℃降水分别为261、141和107 mm/a。本研究利用SPEI揭示了保护区气候变化规律，并分析了温度降水的空间变异性，为保护区管理提供依据。
청장고원고한초지위중요적생태취약구，야시3대무인구자연보호구가가서리、강당화아이금산소재지，유우결핍기후감측참점，기후변화연구교소。기우자연보호구주변16개기상참점자료，통과1957─2011년축년적일기후자료，이용3충모형분석료해구역기온여`강수량적시간변화추세，병이용종합료강수여온도적강수증산지수（SPEI）분석료간한연변적추세，동시이용Kriging삽치법，분석료3대보호구적기후변화적차이。결과표명，근55년이래，최고、최저기온화년평균기온상승추세명현，Mann-Kendall 추세분석체도겁현저성수평，년평균온도증장솔위0.71℃/10a。진일보비교료구역평균치법、선성모형여지수모형3충방법하강수량적변화추세，결과표명，직선모형의합적결과수치최고，지수모형적변이최대，이평균치법수치저우직선모형의합적결과，지수모형능구경호적모의강수량여해발지간적관계，년평균강수량파동교대，20세기60년대개시축점증가，70년대중기유소하강，단총체상정현증가적추세，Mann-Kendall 분석추세현저。강수증가량약위10 mm/10a。SPEI지수표명，근50년래，보호구정현총체유간향습발전적추세。자연보호구내강수량，기온여변폭차이교대，가가서리、강당여아이금산적기온적평균치분별위1.9、15.4화6.0℃강수분별위261、141화107 mm/a。본연구이용SPEI게시료보호구기후변화규률，병분석료온도강수적공간변이성，위보호구관리제공의거。
Based on the data from the 16 meteorological stations around alpine grassland nature reserves (Kekexili, Qiangtang, Aerjinshan), we analyzed the regional temperature and precipitation trends from 1957─2011 using the daily precipitation data. The results showed that, in the past 55 years, the annual maximum, minimum and average temperature increased significantly. Mann-Kendall method showed the increasing trend exhibited a very significant level and the temperature growth rate was 0.71℃/10a. By comparing three methods including regional average method, linear regression method and exponential model for simulating precipitation change, we found that linear regression model had a higher value, exponential model had the largest variations and regional average method was lower than the linear regression model. Exponential model can well fit the relationship between precipitation and elevation. In general, there were large fluctuations of the annual average precipitation. Precipitation showed increasing trend in 1960s and decreasing trend in 1970s. Overall, there was a significant increasing trend based on Mann-Kendall analysis. Also, SPEI index which was integrated precipitation and temperature was used to analyze the drought dynamics and Kriging interpolation to reveal the spatial differences of three nature reserves. SPEI index showed that the climate in these nature reserves had a trend from dry to wet condition. The average annual precipitation, temperature and variations varied greatly among the three grassland nature reserves. The average annual temperature values for Kekexili, Qiangtang and Aerjinshan nature reserve are 1.9, 15.4 and 6.0℃ and precipitation values are 261, 141 and 107 mm/a. In summary, we analyzed the dynamics of climate change based on SPEI index, and spatial variability of temperature and precipitation. The results provide basis for nature reserve management.