机电工程技术
機電工程技術
궤전공정기술
MACHANICAL & ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY
2014年
12期
86-92,239
,共8页
张维%周小兵%崔灿%吴艳芳%胡宝林%李婷%陈炜%李妍%王少荣
張維%週小兵%崔燦%吳豔芳%鬍寶林%李婷%陳煒%李妍%王少榮
장유%주소병%최찬%오염방%호보림%리정%진위%리연%왕소영
电力负荷预测%县域经济%因子分析法%聚类分析法%线性回归方程
電力負荷預測%縣域經濟%因子分析法%聚類分析法%線性迴歸方程
전력부하예측%현역경제%인자분석법%취류분석법%선성회귀방정
power load forecasting%county economy%factor analysis%cluster analysis%linear regression equation
县域电力需求与县域经济的发展密切相关。为了能够客观、全面、科学地对县域电力需求进行预测，提出了一种基于县域经济发展的电力负荷预测方法。所提方法首先采用因子分析法和聚类分析法，对县域经济进行分类和发展预测，然后基于县域经济发展指标采用线性回归方程预测电力电量。以湖北省73个典型县为应用实例，采用历史数据对所提方法的正确性进行了验证，并给出了未来典型年份的县域电力负荷的预测结果。
縣域電力需求與縣域經濟的髮展密切相關。為瞭能夠客觀、全麵、科學地對縣域電力需求進行預測，提齣瞭一種基于縣域經濟髮展的電力負荷預測方法。所提方法首先採用因子分析法和聚類分析法，對縣域經濟進行分類和髮展預測，然後基于縣域經濟髮展指標採用線性迴歸方程預測電力電量。以湖北省73箇典型縣為應用實例，採用歷史數據對所提方法的正確性進行瞭驗證，併給齣瞭未來典型年份的縣域電力負荷的預測結果。
현역전력수구여현역경제적발전밀절상관。위료능구객관、전면、과학지대현역전력수구진행예측，제출료일충기우현역경제발전적전력부하예측방법。소제방법수선채용인자분석법화취류분석법，대현역경제진행분류화발전예측，연후기우현역경제발전지표채용선성회귀방정예측전력전량。이호북성73개전형현위응용실례，채용역사수거대소제방법적정학성진행료험증，병급출료미래전형년빈적현역전력부하적예측결과。
County electricity demand is closely related to the development of county economy. In order to forecast electricity demand objectively, comprehensively and scientifically, this paper presents a load forecasting method based on county economy development. Firstly, the proposed method uses factor analysis and cluster analysis for classifying and forecasting county economy development. Secondly,uses linear regression equation to forecast electricity demand based on county economic development indicators. Finally,takes 73 typical counties in Hubei Province into consideration as examples, verifies correctness of the proposed method with historical data, and gives forecasting results of counties’ power load in the future.
