CAJ | 학술논문

提本文运用NCEP再分析资料（水平分辨率1°×1°，垂直层次26层）和各种常规观测资料以及中央气象台台风实时定位定强数据对2013年全球最强台风海燕的特点和极端性展开分析，并运用天气学分析和动力学诊断的方法探讨“海燕”强度发展的动力机制和快速移动的原因，同时发掘预报着眼点，以提高中央气象台对类似台风的综合预报能力。本文主要研究结论为：（1）“海燕”在登陆菲律宾之前的持续加强和高强度维持发生在副热带西风急流加强南压和副热带高压南侧对流层各层低纬东风同时加强的条件下。（2）副热带西风急流加强南压是导致西太平洋副热带高压加强和副热带高压南侧对流层各层低纬东风加强及“海燕”高速靠近并登陆菲律宾的重要原因。（3）“海燕”的水平风速分布存在明显不对称，呈现台风北侧东风大于南侧西风、台风东侧南风大于西侧北风的特点，其中纬向风的不对称更显著。而由台风海燕东西两侧经向风和南北两侧纬向风的不对称分布导致的切变正涡度的增加可能是台风强度持续增强的重要原因之一。（4）对流层低层水平辐合的显著加强和台风海燕南北两侧经向垂直环流圈的加强和建立也是“海燕”强度持续加强的重要原因之一。（5）台风海燕持续加强和高强度维持的主要动力机制为内核区对流层低层水平辐合和对流层中低层涡度的持续增长以及台风所处环境的高层辐散的明显增加和高低层垂直切变的减小。（6）预报启示为：对于秋冬季的台风而言，除了西太平洋副热带高压、西风槽、对流层低层偏东风、越赤道气流外，还需关注对流层上层副热带西风急流的变化，特别是对于偏西行台风而言，副热带西风急流的加强南压可能会导致台风移速的加快和强度的明显加强。另外对流层上层不光是台风的出流层，能影响台风高层出流的变化，对流层上层的环流还可能对台风移动造成一定影响。提本文運用NCEP再分析資料（水平分辨率1°×1°，垂直層次26層）和各種常規觀測資料以及中央氣象檯檯風實時定位定彊數據對2013年全毬最彊檯風海燕的特點和極耑性展開分析，併運用天氣學分析和動力學診斷的方法探討“海燕”彊度髮展的動力機製和快速移動的原因，同時髮掘預報著眼點，以提高中央氣象檯對類似檯風的綜閤預報能力。本文主要研究結論為：（1）“海燕”在登陸菲律賓之前的持續加彊和高彊度維持髮生在副熱帶西風急流加彊南壓和副熱帶高壓南側對流層各層低緯東風同時加彊的條件下。（2）副熱帶西風急流加彊南壓是導緻西太平洋副熱帶高壓加彊和副熱帶高壓南側對流層各層低緯東風加彊及“海燕”高速靠近併登陸菲律賓的重要原因。（3）“海燕”的水平風速分佈存在明顯不對稱，呈現檯風北側東風大于南側西風、檯風東側南風大于西側北風的特點，其中緯嚮風的不對稱更顯著。而由檯風海燕東西兩側經嚮風和南北兩側緯嚮風的不對稱分佈導緻的切變正渦度的增加可能是檯風彊度持續增彊的重要原因之一。（4）對流層低層水平輻閤的顯著加彊和檯風海燕南北兩側經嚮垂直環流圈的加彊和建立也是“海燕”彊度持續加彊的重要原因之一。（5）檯風海燕持續加彊和高彊度維持的主要動力機製為內覈區對流層低層水平輻閤和對流層中低層渦度的持續增長以及檯風所處環境的高層輻散的明顯增加和高低層垂直切變的減小。（6）預報啟示為：對于鞦鼕季的檯風而言，除瞭西太平洋副熱帶高壓、西風槽、對流層低層偏東風、越赤道氣流外，還需關註對流層上層副熱帶西風急流的變化，特彆是對于偏西行檯風而言，副熱帶西風急流的加彊南壓可能會導緻檯風移速的加快和彊度的明顯加彊。另外對流層上層不光是檯風的齣流層，能影響檯風高層齣流的變化，對流層上層的環流還可能對檯風移動造成一定影響。
제본문운용NCEP재분석자료（수평분변솔1°×1°，수직층차26층）화각충상규관측자료이급중앙기상태태풍실시정위정강수거대2013년전구최강태풍해연적특점화겁단성전개분석，병운용천기학분석화동역학진단적방법탐토“해연”강도발전적동력궤제화쾌속이동적원인，동시발굴예보착안점，이제고중앙기상태대유사태풍적종합예보능력。본문주요연구결론위：（1）“해연”재등륙비률빈지전적지속가강화고강도유지발생재부열대서풍급류가강남압화부열대고압남측대류층각층저위동풍동시가강적조건하。（2）부열대서풍급류가강남압시도치서태평양부열대고압가강화부열대고압남측대류층각층저위동풍가강급“해연”고속고근병등륙비률빈적중요원인。（3）“해연”적수평풍속분포존재명현불대칭，정현태풍북측동풍대우남측서풍、태풍동측남풍대우서측북풍적특점，기중위향풍적불대칭경현저。이유태풍해연동서량측경향풍화남북량측위향풍적불대칭분포도치적절변정와도적증가가능시태풍강도지속증강적중요원인지일。（4）대류층저층수평복합적현저가강화태풍해연남북량측경향수직배류권적가강화건립야시“해연”강도지속가강적중요원인지일。（5）태풍해연지속가강화고강도유지적주요동력궤제위내핵구대류층저층수평복합화대류층중저층와도적지속증장이급태풍소처배경적고층복산적명현증가화고저층수직절변적감소。（6）예보계시위：대우추동계적태풍이언，제료서태평양부열대고압、서풍조、대류층저층편동풍、월적도기류외，환수관주대류층상층부열대서풍급류적변화，특별시대우편서행태풍이언，부열대서풍급류적가강남압가능회도치태풍이속적가쾌화강도적명현가강。령외대류층상층불광시태풍적출류층，능영향태풍고층출류적변화，대류층상층적배류환가능대태풍이동조성일정영향。
NCEP reanalysis data (horizontal resolution of 1°×1°,vertical level 26 layers)and a variety of conventional observation data and real-time typhoon positioning data from Central Meteorological Observa-tory are used to analyze the features of No.1330 typhoon Haiyan.The weather analysis and dynamic diag-nostic methods are used to explore“Haiyan”dynamic mechanism of strengthing development and fast-mov-ing,and to excavate forecast key points to raise the capability of Central Meteorological Observatory in forecasting similar typhoons in the future.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1 )“Haiyan”continues to strengthen and keeps strength before landing Philippines in the simultaneously strengthening of the sub-tropical westerly j et in the course southward and the easterly wind located in the south side of subtropical high.(2)The strengthening of subtropical westerly jet in the course southward is an important cause for the strengthening of the subtropical high and the easterly wind in the south side of the subtropical high in all tropospheric layers.(3)The distribution of “Haiyan”horizontal wind speed is obviously asymmetric, showing the easterly is greater than the westerly,the southerly is greater than the northerly,and the char-acteristics of the zonal wind asymmetry is more pronounced.The enhancement of shear positive vorticity caused by the asymmetry of the zonal wind and meridional wind may be the important cause for the intense development of “Haiyan”before its landing Phillppine.(4)The enhancement of horizontal convergence in the lower troposphere and the existence of vertical meridional circulation may be another important cause. (5 )The main dynamic mechanism of the continuously strengthening of Typhoon Haiyan is horizontal con-vergence in lower troposphere and tropospheric vorticity increase significantly in inner core and the en-hancement of divergence in upper troposphere and the decrease of wind shear in its environmental area.(6 ) For typhoon in autumn and winter,in addition to the western Pacific subtropical high,westerly trough, the lower troposphere easterly winds,cross-equatorial flow,it is important to pay attention to the changes in the upper troposphere subtropical westerly jet stream,especially to the westward typhoon.The strengthening of the subtropical westerly j et may cause typhoon movement to accelerate significantly and intensify.Furthermore upper troposphere not only impacts the change of high-level outflow of typhoon, but also plays some guiding roles in typhoon movement as well as the upper circulations.