人民黄河
人民黃河
인민황하
Yellow River
2015年
1期
27-29,33
,共4页
突变点%Mann-Kendall%Pettitt%径流%窟野河
突變點%Mann-Kendall%Pettitt%徑流%窟野河
돌변점%Mann-Kendall%Pettitt%경류%굴야하
abrupt change point%Mann-Kendall%Pettitt%runoff%Kuye River
根据窟野河流域气象和水文资料，采用Mann－Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变点检验相结合的方法，对该流域径流突变点进行检验，并应用Mann－Kendall趋势检验法对流域降水量、蒸发量进行趋势分析。结果表明：窟野河的年径流量在1979年和1996年发生了突变，初步分析这主要是20世纪80年代初期开始实施的水保措施和20世纪90年代后期煤炭大规模开采造成的；窟野河流域年降水量、年蒸发量从20世纪60年代开始均呈逐年减少的趋势，相对年蒸发量而言，降水量的减少速率较小，并且其变化趋势均不明显。
根據窟野河流域氣象和水文資料，採用Mann－Kendall趨勢檢驗和Pettitt突變點檢驗相結閤的方法，對該流域徑流突變點進行檢驗，併應用Mann－Kendall趨勢檢驗法對流域降水量、蒸髮量進行趨勢分析。結果錶明：窟野河的年徑流量在1979年和1996年髮生瞭突變，初步分析這主要是20世紀80年代初期開始實施的水保措施和20世紀90年代後期煤炭大規模開採造成的；窟野河流域年降水量、年蒸髮量從20世紀60年代開始均呈逐年減少的趨勢，相對年蒸髮量而言，降水量的減少速率較小，併且其變化趨勢均不明顯。
근거굴야하류역기상화수문자료，채용Mann－Kendall추세검험화Pettitt돌변점검험상결합적방법，대해류역경류돌변점진행검험，병응용Mann－Kendall추세검험법대류역강수량、증발량진행추세분석。결과표명：굴야하적년경류량재1979년화1996년발생료돌변，초보분석저주요시20세기80년대초기개시실시적수보조시화20세기90년대후기매탄대규모개채조성적；굴야하류역년강수량、년증발량종20세기60년대개시균정축년감소적추세，상대년증발량이언，강수량적감소속솔교소，병차기변화추세균불명현。
Based on the meteorological and hydrological data collected from the Kuye River,the abrupt change points of the runoff were de-tected jointly using Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt change point test. Meanwhile,Mann-Kendall rank correlation method was em-ployed to perform trend tests on the precipitation and evaporation. The results show that the runoff of the river altered abruptly in 1979 and 1996 respectively. That is because of the soil and water conservation measures practiced in early 1980s’and a large scale of coal mining in later 1990s’,indicated by the preliminary analyses. Annual precipitation and evaporation exhibit a trend of reduction from 1960s’. Com-pared with annual evaporation,the decrease speed of the former is slower,and the change tendency of both is not evident.
