CAJ | 학술논문

为了估测水文模型的不确定性参数特征，更准确地构建水文模型，利用妫水河流域东大桥水文站径流资料，对MIKE SHE模型参数进行了不确定性分析。结果表明：选取的参数中不确定性较大的为水平传导系数、壤中流下渗常量、壤中流给水度、壤中流渗透阈值，不确定性较小的为山林地及平原耕地的饱和渗透系数、蒸散发经验系数；模型模拟结果与实测数据符合较好，校核期有55％的实测数据落入模拟径流量的置信区间内，但模拟精度仍有待提高。
위료고측수문모형적불학정성삼수특정，경준학지구건수문모형，이용규수하류역동대교수문참경류자료，대MIKE SHE모형삼수진행료불학정성분석。결과표명：선취적삼수중불학정성교대적위수평전도계수、양중류하삼상량、양중류급수도、양중류삼투역치，불학정성교소적위산임지급평원경지적포화삼투계수、증산발경험계수；모형모의결과여실측수거부합교호，교핵기유55％적실측수거락입모의경류량적치신구간내，단모의정도잉유대제고。
In the process of building a model,some basin feature parameters are expressed inaccurately. It is an important way to construct model and estimate the uncertainty parameter for evaluating the uncertainty of the overall output. It used the runoff data of the Dongdaqiao Hydrological Station in Guishui River basin as the research object to estimate the uncertainty of runoff parameters. The results show that the parameters of larger uncertainty include PER,SP,C1,C2,C3 and the smaller parameters include KsF,KsI,IT and TD. More than 50%observations in calibration period fall into the corresponding uncertainty bounds,suggesting a similar level of model performance. The simula-tion results are better corresponded with the measured flow,but still need to be improved for higher accuracy.