CAJ | 학술논문

选取西藏自治区2001～2012年旅游综合收入与农牧业增加值的时间序列数据，运用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数，分析西藏旅游产业发展与农牧业经济增长之间的因果关系。结果表明，旅游产业发展和经济增长间存在双向因果关系，农牧业经济增长能影响旅游产业发展；同时，旅游产业的发展也能拉动农牧业经济，旅游产业发展与农牧业经济增长之间存在长期协整关系。在此基础上，分析出现该结果的原因并提出相应的建议。
선취서장자치구2001～2012년여유종합수입여농목업증가치적시간서렬수거，운용VAR모형화맥충향응함수，분석서장여유산업발전여농목업경제증장지간적인과관계。결과표명，여유산업발전화경제증장간존재쌍향인과관계，농목업경제증장능영향여유산업발전；동시，여유산업적발전야능랍동농목업경제，여유산업발전여농목업경제증장지간존재장기협정관계。재차기출상，분석출현해결과적원인병제출상응적건의。
Based on VAR model and impulse response function,time series data of tourism comprehensive income and hus-bandry economic growth (2001 -2012)are selected to quantitatively analyze causal relationship between husbandry economy and the development of tourism industry.Results show that there is a co-integration relationship in between.That is,the development of tourism industry can be influenced by husbandry economic growth,and meanwhile husbandry economy can be stimulated by the development of the tourism industry.There exists the long-term coordinate relationship between the development of tourism industry and the growth of husbandry economy.Moreover,the causes of these results are produced and corresponding suggestions are ad-vanced.