CAJ | 학술논문

利用朝阳市和彰武县154份农户调查数据，使用二元Logistic模型采用正向纳入逐步回归方法，分析农户参与退耕还林行为的影响因素。通过Logistic模型在5％的显著水平上做变量剔除，研究表明：显著影响农户参与退耕还林行为影响因素主要有6个，分别是农户年龄、家庭经营林地面积、林龄结构、是否有林业收入、是否有林权证和机械化程度。农户年龄越大，参与退耕还林的概率逐渐降低；林地面积越大，农户参与退耕还林的概率越大；合理的林龄结构有利于增强农户参与退耕还林的概率；保障并增加农户林业收入，利于扭转林业收入的负作用；农户拥有林权证，可以扩大农户参与退耕还林的概率；机械化程度的提高可以更好地使农户参与到退耕还林中。
이용조양시화창무현154빈농호조사수거，사용이원Logistic모형채용정향납입축보회귀방법，분석농호삼여퇴경환림행위적영향인소。통과Logistic모형재5％적현저수평상주변량척제，연구표명：현저영향농호삼여퇴경환림행위영향인소주요유6개，분별시농호년령、가정경영임지면적、림령결구、시부유임업수입、시부유림권증화궤계화정도。농호년령월대，삼여퇴경환림적개솔축점강저；임지면적월대，농호삼여퇴경환림적개솔월대；합리적림령결구유리우증강농호삼여퇴경환림적개솔；보장병증가농호임업수입，리우뉴전임업수입적부작용；농호옹유림권증，가이확대농호삼여퇴경환림적개솔；궤계화정도적제고가이경호지사농호삼여도퇴경환림중。
Using 154 survey data from field research in Chaoyang and Zhangwu area, this paper stud-ies influencing factors of peasant households participation in the Conversion of Cropland to Forestland Program (CCFP) applying Logistic modeling. By Logistic model variables on the 5% significant lev-el, the results show that peasant households age, family woodland area、 forestry age structure, if there were any income of forestry, is there a certificate of forest right and the degree of mechanization. The bigger the age of peasant households, the lower the peasant households participate in the CCFP . The greater the woodland area, the higher the peasant households participate in the CCFP. the reason-able structure of forest age helps increase the probability of peasant households participate in CCFP . Keeping and increasing the peasant households’ income of forestry, to reverse the negative impacts of forestry income, peasant households have a certificate of forest right, can expand the probability of peasant households participate in the CCFP . The improvement of mechanization can better enable peasant households to participate in the CCFP . Research conclusion to improve the probability of peas-ant households participation in the CCFP with theoretical reference value.