CAJ | 학술논문

在我国大陆地区运用基于力学模型的 Newmark 位移分析方法开展地震滑坡危险性定量评估，尚处在起步阶段。为了进一步明确地震滑坡危险性概念和改进推广基于力学模型的评估方法，首先阐明了狭义的地震滑坡危险性预测评估与震后反演评估的关系；同时为了应对地震应急、震后重建及潜在地震条件下的不同评估需求，初步提出了广义的地震滑坡危险性评估框架。随后申述了基于 Newmark 位移分析的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的理论基础、方法分类及最新进展，并以汶川地震滑坡危险性快速评估为例，剖析了目前影响评估有效性的不确定性及空间数据质量等问题，指出了基于力学模型的地震滑坡危险性评估方法的改进方向。建议开展潜在地震及其诱发滑坡危险性的耦合评估，建立适用于我国大陆地区地震滑坡位移分析的经验模型，以便为国家层面的地震滑坡危险性区划服务。
재아국대륙지구운용기우역학모형적 Newmark 위이분석방법개전지진활파위험성정량평고，상처재기보계단。위료진일보명학지진활파위험성개념화개진추엄기우역학모형적평고방법，수선천명료협의적지진활파위험성예측평고여진후반연평고적관계；동시위료응대지진응급、진후중건급잠재지진조건하적불동평고수구，초보제출료엄의적지진활파위험성평고광가。수후신술료기우 Newmark 위이분석적지진활파위험성평고방법적이론기출、방법분류급최신진전，병이문천지진활파위험성쾌속평고위례，부석료목전영향평고유효성적불학정성급공간수거질량등문제，지출료기우역학모형적지진활파위험성평고방법적개진방향。건의개전잠재지진급기유발활파위험성적우합평고，건립괄용우아국대륙지구지진활파위이분석적경험모형，이편위국가층면적지진활파위험성구화복무。
The Newmark displacement model is preliminarily used for quantitative seismic landslide hazard assessment in Chinese mainland.In order to distinguish concepts and promote the application of this mechanical model based assessment method,we firstly analyze the correlation of the narrow sense seismic landslide hazard forecast assessment and post-earthquake inversion assessment.In order to meet different landslide assessing requirements under earthquake emergency response,post-earthquake reconstruction and potential earthquake conditions,we preliminarily develop a generalized seismic landslide hazard assessment framework.Then,we review the theoretical foundation,basic assumptions,method classification and their applicability of seismic landslide hazard assessment method in association with Newmark model.Also,the latest progress of regional assessment method using simplified displacement is reviewed.Taking the rapid assessment for Wenchuan earthquake inducing landslide hazard as an example,we analyze uncertainties and spatial data problem which affect the effectiveness of assessment.We suggest the improvements to the mechanical model based seismic landslide hazard assessment.It should be noted that the coupled hazard assessment of potential earthquake and the inducing landslide needs to be carried out.Empirical seismic landslide displacement analyzing model applicable to Chinese mainland needs to be developed,so as to promote national seismic landslide hazard zoning.