CAJ | 학술논문

利用2005～2011年银川市逐日腮腺炎病例资料、气象资料，采用气候倾向率、趋势系数、相关分析方法分析腮腺炎流行特征及其与气象因素的关系。结果表明：银川市腮腺炎病例数呈波动增多趋势，各月呈“2峰2谷”型规律变化；冬春之交（2～5月）、秋冬之交（9～12月）呈逐渐增多的趋势，夏季（6～8月）、冬季（12月至次年2月）呈逐渐减少趋势；银川市兴庆区平均病例数最多，占总病例数的44．4％，灵武市平均病例数最少，只占总病例数的5．0％；1～18岁年龄段腮腺炎病例数占总病例数的92．7％，是主要易感人群，而6～7岁是防控的重点人群；腮腺炎疾病分别与前1～前4周平均最低气压、最大变压、最大变温、平均相对湿度、平均最小相对湿度、平均日照时数等气象因素有极显著的相关关系，可以利用前期气象资料预测腮腺炎病例数，为腮腺炎疾病的防控提供参考。
이용2005～2011년은천시축일시선염병례자료、기상자료，채용기후경향솔、추세계수、상관분석방법분석시선염류행특정급기여기상인소적관계。결과표명：은천시시선염병례수정파동증다추세，각월정“2봉2곡”형규률변화；동춘지교（2～5월）、추동지교（9～12월）정축점증다적추세，하계（6～8월）、동계（12월지차년2월）정축점감소추세；은천시흥경구평균병례수최다，점총병례수적44．4％，령무시평균병례수최소，지점총병례수적5．0％；1～18세년령단시선염병례수점총병례수적92．7％，시주요역감인군，이6～7세시방공적중점인군；시선염질병분별여전1～전4주평균최저기압、최대변압、최대변온、평균상대습도、평균최소상대습도、평균일조시수등기상인소유겁현저적상관관계，가이이용전기기상자료예측시선염병례수，위시선염질병적방공제공삼고。
Based on the daily mumps cases,meteorological data from 2005 to 2011 in Yinchuan,the epidemic characteristics of the mumps cases and relations with the meteorological factors were analyzed by using the methods of climatic inclination rate and the corre-lation analysis. The results show that the number of mumps cases presented increasing trend,the crowd from the age of 1 to 20 with mumps cases accounted for 93. 7% of the total mumps cases in Yinchuan,and they were the main easy infected crowd,while the crowd from the age of 6 to 7 was the key crowd of prevention and control. The monthly variation of mumps cases presented increase trend from February to May and September to December,while decline trend in summer and winter. The number of mumps cases accounted for 44. 4% and 5. 0% of the total number in Xingqing and Lingwu,respectively. The correlations were significant between the number of mumps cases and the weekly mean pressure,weekly mean temperature,weekly maxium temperature difference,mean relative humidi-ty,weekly minimum relative humidity and weekly sunshine hours. The number of mumps cases was obviously affected by the meteoro-logical factors of the first one to fourth weeks,so mumps cases could be forecasted by using the preceding meteorological factors.