干旱气象
榦旱氣象
간한기상
GANSU METEOROLOGY
2015年
1期
45-51
,共7页
层次分析法%危险性%暴露性%脆弱性%风险评估模型%有害积寒
層次分析法%危險性%暴露性%脆弱性%風險評估模型%有害積寒
층차분석법%위험성%폭로성%취약성%풍험평고모형%유해적한
analytic hierarchy process%risk%exposure%vulnerability%risk evaluation model%harmful chilling accumulation
为了了解河南省冬小麦晚霜冻的发生规律，以便及时采取应对措施进行防灾减灾，从而实现冬小麦高产稳产，本文选取冬小麦晚霜冻有害积寒和频度（危险性）、冬小麦种植面积（暴露性）、灌耕比和单位提灌面积机井数（脆弱性）等风险评价指标建立风险评价体系，通过层次分析法确定冬小麦晚霜冻风险评价指标权重，构建冬小麦晚霜冻风险评价模型。基于1984～2013年气候数据对河南省冬小麦晚霜冻进行风险评价，根据冬小麦晚霜冻风险评价模型，应用ArcGIS进行栅格计算，得到河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划图。结果显示：商丘东部、周口、漯河、驻马店大部、信阳和南阳局部晚霜冻风险指数高，在0．289～0．483之间，为晚霜冻高风险区；而三门峡、洛阳、济源、焦作以及郑州、安阳、鹤壁、新乡等地区大部晚霜冻风险指数较低，在0．123以下，为晚霜冻低风险区。最后根据历史统计资料计算的晚霜冻指数和本文研究结果对河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划图的提取值进行相关分析，相关系数达到0．78，表明本文所得到的河南省冬小麦晚霜冻风险区划结果和历史统计结果相符。
為瞭瞭解河南省鼕小麥晚霜凍的髮生規律，以便及時採取應對措施進行防災減災，從而實現鼕小麥高產穩產，本文選取鼕小麥晚霜凍有害積寒和頻度（危險性）、鼕小麥種植麵積（暴露性）、灌耕比和單位提灌麵積機井數（脆弱性）等風險評價指標建立風險評價體繫，通過層次分析法確定鼕小麥晚霜凍風險評價指標權重，構建鼕小麥晚霜凍風險評價模型。基于1984～2013年氣候數據對河南省鼕小麥晚霜凍進行風險評價，根據鼕小麥晚霜凍風險評價模型，應用ArcGIS進行柵格計算，得到河南省鼕小麥晚霜凍風險區劃圖。結果顯示：商丘東部、週口、漯河、駐馬店大部、信暘和南暘跼部晚霜凍風險指數高，在0．289～0．483之間，為晚霜凍高風險區；而三門峽、洛暘、濟源、焦作以及鄭州、安暘、鶴壁、新鄉等地區大部晚霜凍風險指數較低，在0．123以下，為晚霜凍低風險區。最後根據歷史統計資料計算的晚霜凍指數和本文研究結果對河南省鼕小麥晚霜凍風險區劃圖的提取值進行相關分析，相關繫數達到0．78，錶明本文所得到的河南省鼕小麥晚霜凍風險區劃結果和歷史統計結果相符。
위료료해하남성동소맥만상동적발생규률，이편급시채취응대조시진행방재감재，종이실현동소맥고산은산，본문선취동소맥만상동유해적한화빈도（위험성）、동소맥충식면적（폭로성）、관경비화단위제관면적궤정수（취약성）등풍험평개지표건립풍험평개체계，통과층차분석법학정동소맥만상동풍험평개지표권중，구건동소맥만상동풍험평개모형。기우1984～2013년기후수거대하남성동소맥만상동진행풍험평개，근거동소맥만상동풍험평개모형，응용ArcGIS진행책격계산，득도하남성동소맥만상동풍험구화도。결과현시：상구동부、주구、탑하、주마점대부、신양화남양국부만상동풍험지수고，재0．289～0．483지간，위만상동고풍험구；이삼문협、락양、제원、초작이급정주、안양、학벽、신향등지구대부만상동풍험지수교저，재0．123이하，위만상동저풍험구。최후근거역사통계자료계산적만상동지수화본문연구결과대하남성동소맥만상동풍험구화도적제취치진행상관분석，상관계수체도0．78，표명본문소득도적하남성동소맥만상동풍험구화결과화역사통계결과상부。
In order to master the occurrence regularity of winter wheat late frost injury in He’nan Province,and take timely measures for disaster prevention and reduction,this paper firstly selects these risk evaluation indexes including the winter wheat late frost harmful chilling accumulation and frequency (risk),the planting area of winter wheat (exposure),and the ratio of irrigated and tillable field area,well number per unit area (vulnerability)to establish risk evaluation system,and then determines the weight of winter wheat late frost risk evaluation index by using analytic hierarchy process,finally the winter wheat late frost freeze risk evaluation model was built. Based on 1984-2013 climate data,the late frost of winter wheat in He’nan Province was evaluated by using the risk assessment mod-el,and according to the winter wheat late frost risk evaluation model for grid computing in ArcGIS,the winter wheat late frost risk zon-ing map in He’nan Province was obtained. The results show that the late frost risk index was high which ranged from 0. 289 to 0. 483 in the eastern Shangqiu,Zhoukou,Luohe,most part of Zhumadian,some part of Xinyang and Nanyang,while in most of Sanmenxia, Luoyang,Jiyuan,Jiaozuo,Zhengzhou,Anyang,Hebi,Xinxiang and other areas the late frost risk index was less than 0. 123. Finally, the correlation analysis was carried out between the late frost index caculated by using historical statistical data and the results of this study,and the correlation coefficient was 0. 78,which showed that the winter wheat late frost risk zoning results in He’nan Province were consistent with the historical statistics.
