CAJ | 학술논문

针对退化模型中存在模型一致性检验不充分问题，借鉴数理统计知识和灰色系统理论，提出一种基于空间相似性和波动阈值的退化模型一致性检验方法。首先，考虑基于正态总体的波动阈值一致性检验，确定退化模型和验证试验结论具有动态一致性，即退化模型结论在容许的波动阈值内；然后，考虑基于灰色关联的空间形状相似性一致性检验，确定退化模型曲线之间的相似度；最后，根据退化模型同时满足基于正态总体的波动阈值一致性检验和基于灰色关联的空间形状相似性一致性检验，认为退化模型通过一致性检验；反之，认为不通过一致性检验。通过实例建模和试验数据对比，验证了所提方法的有效性。
침대퇴화모형중존재모형일치성검험불충분문제，차감수리통계지식화회색계통이론，제출일충기우공간상사성화파동역치적퇴화모형일치성검험방법。수선，고필기우정태총체적파동역치일치성검험，학정퇴화모형화험증시험결론구유동태일치성，즉퇴화모형결론재용허적파동역치내；연후，고필기우회색관련적공간형상상사성일치성검험，학정퇴화모형곡선지간적상사도；최후，근거퇴화모형동시만족기우정태총체적파동역치일치성검험화기우회색관련적공간형상상사성일치성검험，인위퇴화모형통과일치성검험；반지，인위불통과일치성검험。통과실례건모화시험수거대비，험증료소제방법적유효성。
To solve the problem of insufficiency of consistency check in the degradation model,we propose a method of consistency check of the degradation model based on spatial similarity and fluctuation threshold,using the knowledge of mathematical statistics and grey system theory for reference.Firstly,we take into consideration the con-sistency check of the fluctuation threshold based on the normal population to identify the dynamic consistency between the degradation model and validation test results,namely,the results of the degradation model are within the allowable fluctuation threshold.Secondly,we consider the consistency check of space shape similarity based on the grey correla-tion to determine the similarity among degradation model curves.At last,if the degradation model satisfies the consis-tency check of the fluctuation threshold based on the normal population and the consistency check of space shape similarity based on the grey correlation,we can conclude that the degradation model meets the consistency check.Otherwise,we conclude that the degradation model does not meet the consistency check.By comparison of modeling and experiment data,the validity of the proposed method is verified.