CAJ | 학술논문

医学影像检查量预测对于医院医疗管理决策有着重要意义。但医学影像检查量受外界因素影响大、波动性强，常规预测方法易造成较大偏差。本文提出了一种基于灰色马尔可夫模型的医学影像检查量预测方法，该方法结合了灰色模型与马尔可夫模型，提高了医学影像检查量的预测精度，解决了其随机波动性问题，可为管理决策提供更准确的参考信息。
의학영상검사량예측대우의원의료관리결책유착중요의의。단의학영상검사량수외계인소영향대、파동성강，상규예측방법역조성교대편차。본문제출료일충기우회색마이가부모형적의학영상검사량예측방법，해방법결합료회색모형여마이가부모형，제고료의학영상검사량적예측정도，해결료기수궤파동성문제，가위관리결책제공경준학적삼고신식。
Prediction about the quantity of medical imaging examinations played a signiifcant role in policy-making of medical management in the hospital. However, since external factors can exert big inlfuence on the quantity of medical imaging examinations and cause wide lfuctuations, conventional methods cannot make a precise prediction. Hence, a new method that combined grey model and markov model was proposed in this paper to predict the quantity of medical imaging examinations. It improved the prediction accuracy, eliminated the wide fluctuations and provided a more accurate reference for decision-making of medical management.