CAJ | 학술논문

首先明确房地产泡沫的概念，之后在比较已有的指标体系、统计检验和基础价值这三类房地产泡沫的测度方法的基础上，选择了改进后的状态空间模型，收集2000年至2012年的年度数据，通过分别建立房地产需求、房地产供给以及房地产基础价值的状态空间模型，运用卡尔曼滤波、描述性分析、ADF平稳性检验和协整检验对我国房地产市场的泡沫度进行分析及测度，最后基于实证研究的结果提出改进后模型测度方法的使用技巧。
수선명학방지산포말적개념，지후재비교이유적지표체계、통계검험화기출개치저삼류방지산포말적측도방법적기출상，선택료개진후적상태공간모형，수집2000년지2012년적년도수거，통과분별건립방지산수구、방지산공급이급방지산기출개치적상태공간모형，운용잡이만려파、묘술성분석、ADF평은성검험화협정검험대아국방지산시장적포말도진행분석급측도，최후기우실증연구적결과제출개진후모형측도방법적사용기교。
Firstly , the concept of real estate price buble is clearly put forward . Then based on the comparison of existing measuring methods and data from 2000 to 2012 , an improved method is employed in the construction of SSpace modeles of supply , demand and fundamental price to measure the real estate price buble . In addition , Kalman filtering , descriptive analysis , ADF stationary as well as co-integration test are used in the empirical process . Finally , result of empirical study is analyzed and the usage of SSpace models on evaluating real estate price buble is suggested .