CAJ | 학술논문

根据2000_2010年跨国面板数据，利用随机效应tobit模型研究粮食、环境和能源对全球生物燃料替代化石燃料使用的影响。研究发现：粮食安全程度高的国家生物燃料替代程度较高，而生物燃料的过度发展有可能导致“与粮争地”和国际粮食市场价格上涨，从而危及粮食安全；碳排放强度能促进生物燃料替代水平的提高，但前提是该国具有较高的国民收入水平；能源安全考虑仅仅在发达国家内能影响生物燃料替代。相关结论为各国制定适合本国粮食安全状况和经济发展水平的生物燃料替代目标提供参考依据。
근거2000_2010년과국면판수거，이용수궤효응tobit모형연구양식、배경화능원대전구생물연료체대화석연료사용적영향。연구발현：양식안전정도고적국가생물연료체대정도교고，이생물연료적과도발전유가능도치“여량쟁지”화국제양식시장개격상창，종이위급양식안전；탄배방강도능촉진생물연료체대수평적제고，단전제시해국구유교고적국민수입수평；능원안전고필부부재발체국가내능영향생물연료체대。상관결론위각국제정괄합본국양식안전상황화경제발전수평적생물연료체대목표제공삼고의거。
Based on a panel dataset from 2000 to 2010 ,this paper utilizes a random_effect tobit model to analyze impacts of food,environment and energy factors on replacement of biofuels for fossil fuels. The re-sults show that:Countries with better food security have higher replacement rate. But radical development of biofuels may lead to“competition with food for land”and price increase of world food market,and hence en-danger food security. Carbon emission may lead to high replacement of biofuels,conditional on a relatively high national income per capita. Energy security may be an relevant issue for developed countries. The results provide support for countries to make decisions on targets of biofuels development.