CAJ | 학술논문

碳市场形成的碳价格会影响制造业各分行业成本的变动，从而导致经济增长水平、能源消费量及要素市场价格的改变。采用2001_2011年中国制造业各行业GDP水平、碳排放量、能源消耗量、人力资本及物质资本等数据，以每吨60元碳价水平为基准测算碳价冲击对制造业总体及各分行业的影响。结果表明：碳价冲击有助于提高制造业整体的增长水平，减少生产过程中对能源要素的需求，并可能改变要素市场上各要素的相对价格。为进一步研究制造业不同行业的异质性，将27个目标行业划分为高碳行业和低碳行业，研究这两种不同类型的行业组在受到气候政策规制时对相关指标的影响。研究显示：无论是低碳行业还是高碳行业，碳减排政策都有助于提升产出水平，但对这两类行业能源消耗的影响不同，其中高碳行业在受到碳价冲击时会增加资本要素的投入水平，以替代原有的能源要素需求；而低碳行业并没有显著减少对能源要素的需求。
탄시장형성적탄개격회영향제조업각분행업성본적변동，종이도치경제증장수평、능원소비량급요소시장개격적개변。채용2001_2011년중국제조업각행업GDP수평、탄배방량、능원소모량、인력자본급물질자본등수거，이매둔60원탄개수평위기준측산탄개충격대제조업총체급각분행업적영향。결과표명：탄개충격유조우제고제조업정체적증장수평，감소생산과정중대능원요소적수구，병가능개변요소시장상각요소적상대개격。위진일보연구제조업불동행업적이질성，장27개목표행업화분위고탄행업화저탄행업，연구저량충불동류형적행업조재수도기후정책규제시대상관지표적영향。연구현시：무론시저탄행업환시고탄행업，탄감배정책도유조우제승산출수평，단대저량류행업능원소모적영향불동，기중고탄행업재수도탄개충격시회증가자본요소적투입수평，이체대원유적능원요소수구；이저탄행업병몰유현저감소대능원요소적수구。
The carbon price in carbon market could affect the cost of manufacturing sectors,leading the level of economic growth and energy consumption and factor price to change. By using the data from 2001 to 2011 of GDP level of China's manufacturing industry,carbon emissions,energy consumption,human capital and material capital,the paper uses 60 yuan per ton of the domestic carbon price level as a benchmark to measure the impact of carbon price on overall manufacturing industry and the various sectors. The results show that the carbon price shock is helpful to improve the level of economic growth in manufacturing industry,re-duce the demand for energy in the process of production and the factor price in the factor market. To further study the heterogeneity between different sectors,27 manufacturing sectors are divided into high carbon and low carbon industry,to study the two different types of industry in response to climate policy regulation. We find that climate policy could help enhance economy level for both low carbon industry and high carbon indus-try,but the impact for energy consumption is different. high carbon industry in a hit from the carbon price will increase the investment level of capital to replace the original factors of energy demand,while the low carbon industry will increase the demand for energy.