CAJ | 학술논문

运用生长曲线理论对中国铁路网演化（1949–2020年）的生命周期进行判定，旨在得到铁路网在时空演化中的周期性变化和生长规律.根据调整拟合优度最大隶属原则，将中国铁路网演化曲线逐步融合划分成为4个生命周期.选择四个典型的生长曲线模型，对每一个生命周期的曲线进行拟合识别，得到中国铁路网演化生命周期遵循Logistic模型的生长规律和每个生命周期的生长曲线公式及参数.研究表明，中国铁路网演变遵循连续形生长曲线特征，分别为萌芽期（1949–1969年），发展期（1970–1988年），调整期（1989–1998年）和繁荣期（1999–2020年后），每一个生命周期都遵循着发生、成长到成熟的生长特征.目前中国铁路网处于第四生命周期中的成长期，周期结束时间约为2023年，里程将达到12.537万km.相关部门应当根据铁路网演化生命周期的生长规律，在不同生长阶段采取相应的发展策略，指导和促进中国铁路网顺利过渡到下一生命周期.
운용생장곡선이론대중국철로망연화（1949–2020년）적생명주기진행판정，지재득도철로망재시공연화중적주기성변화화생장규률.근거조정의합우도최대대속원칙，장중국철로망연화곡선축보융합화분성위4개생명주기.선택사개전형적생장곡선모형，대매일개생명주기적곡선진행의합식별，득도중국철로망연화생명주기준순Logistic모형적생장규률화매개생명주기적생장곡선공식급삼수.연구표명，중국철로망연변준순련속형생장곡선특정，분별위맹아기（1949–1969년），발전기（1970–1988년），조정기（1989–1998년）화번영기（1999–2020년후），매일개생명주기도준순착발생、성장도성숙적생장특정.목전중국철로망처우제사생명주기중적성장기，주기결속시간약위2023년，리정장체도12.537만km.상관부문응당근거철로망연화생명주기적생장규률，재불동생장계단채취상응적발전책략，지도화촉진중국철로망순리과도도하일생명주기.
Life cycle assessment(LCA)of China’s railway network evolution(1949–2020)is to obtained the periodic change and development law on spatiotemporal evolution by using growth curve theory. According to the maximum membership degree principle of adjust goodness of fit, the evolution process of China’s railway network were gradually fused four life cycle. Four typical growth curve model are adopted to fit the curves with each life cycle, then get the evolution law that the life cycle of China’s railway network follow the laws of Logistic model and the calculation formula and parameter selection of each life cycle is introduced. The results show that China’s railway network evolution follow the characteristics of the continuous form of growth curve and grouped into four life cycle, sprout cycle(1949–1969),development cycle(1970–1988),adjustment cycle(1989–1998)and prosperous cycle(1999–2020 later), each cycle follow the growth law like generation, growth and maturation. At present, the evolution of the railway network is in the growth stage of the prosperous cycle, the end of the life cycle time is about 2023, the total length of China’s railway network will reach 125,370 km. The related departments should take appropriate development strategy in different stages according to the growth law of China’s railway network evolution, guide and promote the China’s railway network transition to the next life cycle smoothly.