生态环境学报
生態環境學報
생태배경학보
ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
2015年
1期
22-28
,共7页
标准降雨蒸发指数%东北地区%干旱%主成分分析
標準降雨蒸髮指數%東北地區%榦旱%主成分分析
표준강우증발지수%동북지구%간한%주성분분석
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)%northeast China%drought%Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
东北地区是我国重要的粮食作物和经济作物的生产基地，易受异常降水和干旱的影响。随着全球气候变暖，东北地区温度增高、降水量减少，干旱事件发生频繁。但是目前国内对东北地区干旱的研究较少、结果存在分歧，且主要关注干旱的时空变化特征和干旱的影响，较少研究关注干旱的区划研究。依据1961─2013年东北地区月平均气温和降水资料，运用标准化降水蒸发指数（SPEI）分析了东北地区的干旱趋势，并根据主成分分析和聚类分析研究东北地区干旱的时空特征，研究结果表明：东北地区在1961─2012年期间干旱发生频率呈现波动增加的趋势；在1961─1999年期间，东北地区干旱发生频率低、持续时间短，干旱危害较小；而2000年以后，东北地区干旱事件频发，干旱持续时间长、强度大，出现了2000─2002和2007─2008年2个连续干旱期。从空间分布来看，2000─2010年是东北地区干旱发生频率和影响范围最大的时期，尤其是东北地区的中部和西部，其干旱频率分别达到42.86%和33.34%。根据主成分析和聚类分析的结果将东北划分为8个干旱相似区。研究结果对于实现东北干旱监测、评估，为减轻该区域干旱损失，指导区域水资源管理和农业生产具有重要的现实意义。
東北地區是我國重要的糧食作物和經濟作物的生產基地，易受異常降水和榦旱的影響。隨著全毬氣候變暖，東北地區溫度增高、降水量減少，榦旱事件髮生頻繁。但是目前國內對東北地區榦旱的研究較少、結果存在分歧，且主要關註榦旱的時空變化特徵和榦旱的影響，較少研究關註榦旱的區劃研究。依據1961─2013年東北地區月平均氣溫和降水資料，運用標準化降水蒸髮指數（SPEI）分析瞭東北地區的榦旱趨勢，併根據主成分分析和聚類分析研究東北地區榦旱的時空特徵，研究結果錶明：東北地區在1961─2012年期間榦旱髮生頻率呈現波動增加的趨勢；在1961─1999年期間，東北地區榦旱髮生頻率低、持續時間短，榦旱危害較小；而2000年以後，東北地區榦旱事件頻髮，榦旱持續時間長、彊度大，齣現瞭2000─2002和2007─2008年2箇連續榦旱期。從空間分佈來看，2000─2010年是東北地區榦旱髮生頻率和影響範圍最大的時期，尤其是東北地區的中部和西部，其榦旱頻率分彆達到42.86%和33.34%。根據主成分析和聚類分析的結果將東北劃分為8箇榦旱相似區。研究結果對于實現東北榦旱鑑測、評估，為減輕該區域榦旱損失，指導區域水資源管理和農業生產具有重要的現實意義。
동북지구시아국중요적양식작물화경제작물적생산기지，역수이상강수화간한적영향。수착전구기후변난，동북지구온도증고、강수량감소，간한사건발생빈번。단시목전국내대동북지구간한적연구교소、결과존재분기，차주요관주간한적시공변화특정화간한적영향，교소연구관주간한적구화연구。의거1961─2013년동북지구월평균기온화강수자료，운용표준화강수증발지수（SPEI）분석료동북지구적간한추세，병근거주성분분석화취류분석연구동북지구간한적시공특정，연구결과표명：동북지구재1961─2012년기간간한발생빈솔정현파동증가적추세；재1961─1999년기간，동북지구간한발생빈솔저、지속시간단，간한위해교소；이2000년이후，동북지구간한사건빈발，간한지속시간장、강도대，출현료2000─2002화2007─2008년2개련속간한기。종공간분포래간，2000─2010년시동북지구간한발생빈솔화영향범위최대적시기，우기시동북지구적중부화서부，기간한빈솔분별체도42.86%화33.34%。근거주성분석화취류분석적결과장동북화분위8개간한상사구。연구결과대우실현동북간한감측、평고，위감경해구역간한손실，지도구역수자원관리화농업생산구유중요적현실의의。
As an important agricultural production zone of commercial and economic crop, Northeast China is susceptible to suffering from precipitation anomaly and drought risk. With global climate change and regional reduction of precipitation reducing, droughts happened much more frequently in Northeast China. At present, only a few studies paid attention to droughts in Northeast China, and inconsistent results was showed in these studies. Additionally, most of these studies tried to detect the spatiotemporal variation or to explore the effects of drought. However, few researchs have identified the regionalization of drought in Northeast China. Based on the monthly mean air temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2013, the temporal and spatial patterns of drought were analyzed by applying the S-mode PCA to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) estimated on 12-month timescales. The result showed that during the period of 1961 to 2013, drought in Northeast China tended to be gradually severe. In 1961─1999, droughts happened at a lower frequency, shorter duration and lesser damage than that in 2000─2012. Two consecutive drought periods occurred in the years of 2000─2002 and 2007─2008. According to the spatial distribution of drought in Northeast China in the past half century, the driest period was from 2000 to 2010, which affected the largest drought area and exhibited highest drought frequency, especially in the central and south part, with a respectively drought frequency of 42.86%and 33.34%. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were applied to regionalize the drought of Northeast China, and eight different drought sub-regions were identified. Our results could make contribution to monitoring and assessment of drought. And it could also be further used in the alleviation of the loss resulting from droughts and guidelines of water resource management and regional agricultural production.
