CAJ | 학술논문

文章对改革开放以来新疆经济、物质资本和人力资本的变化进行对比及相关性分析，结果为：新疆经济、物质资本和人力资本之间有显著的的正相关性，新疆经济与物质资本之间的相关性高于人力资本。有效劳动模型和协整方程结果都显示新疆经济的技术综合水平很低，物质资本产出弹性高于人力资本产出弹性，两者产出弹性之和大于1。借助ARIMA模型、经济平均增长速度、跨越式目标以及有效劳动模型和协整方程对新疆经济进行预测的结果表明，从新疆经济发展的历史规律来看，在今后的一定时期内新疆经济会有稳定的增长趋势，但是更高的经济发展目标则需要特殊的政策支持和战略调整。
문장대개혁개방이래신강경제、물질자본화인력자본적변화진행대비급상관성분석，결과위：신강경제、물질자본화인력자본지간유현저적적정상관성，신강경제여물질자본지간적상관성고우인력자본。유효노동모형화협정방정결과도현시신강경제적기술종합수평흔저，물질자본산출탄성고우인력자본산출탄성，량자산출탄성지화대우1。차조ARIMA모형、경제평균증장속도、과월식목표이급유효노동모형화협정방정대신강경제진행예측적결과표명，종신강경제발전적역사규률래간，재금후적일정시기내신강경제회유은정적증장추세，단시경고적경제발전목표칙수요특수적정책지지화전략조정。
This paper compared and analyzed the development of Xinjiang’s economy, material capital and human capital since the reform and opening policy was adopted. The results showed that changes in the three variables have maintained a high consistency. Xinjiang’s economy, physical capital and human capital have a significant positive correlation; and the correlation between economy and physical capital is higher than human capital. The results of effective labor model and cointegration equation show that economic technology level in Xinjiang is very low, the output elasticity of physical capital is higher than the output elasticity of human capital, and the sum of both output elasticity is greater than 1. The prediction, applying ARIMA model, the average economic growth speed, the leap-forward goals, the effective labor model and cointegration equation, finds that Xinjiang economy’s will be a steady growth trend during a given period, but higher economic development goals require special policy supports and strategic adjustments.