CAJ | 학술논문

养老保险是国家为保障退休人员基本生活而建立的一种社会保险制度，居于社会保障的核心地位，但由于“老人”和“中人”累计债务的存在以及近年来老年人口的迅速增加等原因，现行养老保险制度的收支矛盾凸显。本文主要利用时间序列、寿险精算等方法测算2014-2020年北京市城镇养老金的收支状况，以期为政府养老金政策的制定和调整提供依据。测算结果显示，虽然在2020年以前养老金的年度收入一直大于年度支出，但是由于养老金收入和支出的不均衡增长，在2030年左右可能出现收不抵支的情况，需要动用累计结余基金弥补支出缺口。随着老龄人口的持续快速增加，长期来看则有发生养老金支付危机的可能。为防止支付危机的发生，政府可以对退休年龄、迁移率、缴费率、替代率等因素进行调整，但解决养老金支付危机的最根本方法还是采取有效措施彻底解决目前“老人”和“中人”的累计债务问题。
양로보험시국가위보장퇴휴인원기본생활이건립적일충사회보험제도，거우사회보장적핵심지위，단유우“노인”화“중인”루계채무적존재이급근년래노년인구적신속증가등원인，현행양로보험제도적수지모순철현。본문주요이용시간서렬、수험정산등방법측산2014-2020년북경시성진양로금적수지상황，이기위정부양로금정책적제정화조정제공의거。측산결과현시，수연재2020년이전양로금적년도수입일직대우년도지출，단시유우양로금수입화지출적불균형증장，재2030년좌우가능출현수불저지적정황，수요동용루계결여기금미보지출결구。수착노령인구적지속쾌속증가，장기래간칙유발생양로금지부위궤적가능。위방지지부위궤적발생，정부가이대퇴휴년령、천이솔、격비솔、체대솔등인소진행조정，단해결양로금지부위궤적최근본방법환시채취유효조시철저해결목전“노인”화“중인”적루계채무문제。
The endowment insurance is a social insurance system for ensuring basic life of retiree,which takes the core status in the social insurance . However;there exist contradictions of incomings and outgoings in current insurance system. And they are sharpening due to the population ageing and the appearance of the accumulated debt of“old aged”and“middle - aged”. In order to provide a basis for the formulation and adjustment of the government policy,the Beijing urban pension payment statuses in 2014 - 2020 is measure and calculate by time series analysis and life contingencies in this paper. The numerical results have shown that the incomings will not be able to cover the charge starting around 2030 and the surplus funds must be expensed due to the unbalanced growth of revenue and expenditure although the annual revenue has been greater than the annual expenditure until 2020. So the possibility of the pension payment crisis should not be ignored. In order to prevent the crisis,it is suggested to the government to adjust its policy on retirement age,migration rate,contribution rate and substitution rate. In our opinion,the most fundamental approach is to solve the accumulative debt problems of 〝old aged〝 and 〝 middle -aged 〝.