CAJ | 학술논문

文章从粮食内部种植结构调整的角度入手，通过建立一个新的分析框架，重新对近10年来江苏省粮食持续增产的贡献因素进行了分解测算。结果表明，尽管过去10年来作物单产提升是江苏粮食增产的最主要贡献因素，但相比于其在年度间波动幅度大、贡献不稳定的特点，播种面积对粮食增产的贡献作用更为持久与稳定。同时，粮食内部种植结构调整、相对高产的粮食作物对低产作物的种植替代也是推动江苏粮食连续增产不可忽视的重要因素。鉴于播种面积对粮食增产持续而稳定的贡献作用，未来要实现江苏粮食可持续增产，保留一定的粮食用地规模是必须的；而进一步挖掘粮食单产潜力的重点，应该是在努力提升各粮食作物自身单产水平的同时，建立降低粮食单产年际间波动的长效机制。
문장종양식내부충식결구조정적각도입수，통과건립일개신적분석광가，중신대근10년래강소성양식지속증산적공헌인소진행료분해측산。결과표명，진관과거10년래작물단산제승시강소양식증산적최주요공헌인소，단상비우기재년도간파동폭도대、공헌불은정적특점，파충면적대양식증산적공헌작용경위지구여은정。동시，양식내부충식결구조정、상대고산적양식작물대저산작물적충식체대야시추동강소양식련속증산불가홀시적중요인소。감우파충면적대양식증산지속이은정적공헌작용，미래요실현강소양식가지속증산，보류일정적양식용지규모시필수적；이진일보알굴양식단산잠력적중점，응해시재노력제승각양식작물자신단산수평적동시，건립강저양식단산년제간파동적장효궤제。
The paper, by building a new analytical framework from the perspective of inter-crop structural adjust?ment,estimates and decomposes contributory factors of sustainable grain production growth of Jiangsu province in re?cent ten years once more. The results show that crop yield increase is the most important contributor to the prov?ince’s grain output growth,but the contribution of crop areas to the growth is even more durable and stable,com?pared with the crop yield characteristics of big fluctuation and instable contribution during the same period. Mean?while,both inter-crop structural adjustment and higher yield crops replacing lower yield ones are also the important elements contributing to the output growth. Based on the durable and stable role of crop areas in grain production growth,it will be certainly necessary to retain a certain amount of crop areas to achieve a sustainable grain output growth for the province in the future, whereas the focus on further tapping crop yield potential is to establish a long-term mechanism which can reduce its interannual fluctuations while promoting the level of each crop yield.