CAJ | 학술논문

采用COMCOT海啸模型建立三重网格模型模拟了2011年3月11日日本东北部9.0级地震引发的海啸发生、发展以及在我国东南沿海传播过程。震源附近浮标站以及浙江沿海的潮位站实测资料验证结果显示，大部分监测站首波到达时间和海啸波的计算值相差在15％以内，表明模型可较好的模拟海啸在计算域内的传播过程。研究表明日本南海海槽、冲绳海槽以及琉球海沟南部是影响浙江沿海主要的区域潜在震源，通过情景计算分别模拟3个潜在震源9.1级、8.0级和8.7级地震引发的海啸对浙江沿海的海啸风险，计算结果表明，海啸波产生后可在3～8h内传至浙江省沿岸，海啸波达1～3m，最大可达4m，此时浙江沿岸面临Ⅲ～Ⅳ级海啸风险，达到淹没至严重淹没等级。
채용COMCOT해소모형건립삼중망격모형모의료2011년3월11일일본동북부9.0급지진인발적해소발생、발전이급재아국동남연해전파과정。진원부근부표참이급절강연해적조위참실측자료험증결과현시，대부분감측참수파도체시간화해소파적계산치상차재15％이내，표명모형가교호적모의해소재계산역내적전파과정。연구표명일본남해해조、충승해조이급류구해구남부시영향절강연해주요적구역잠재진원，통과정경계산분별모의3개잠재진원9.1급、8.0급화8.7급지진인발적해소대절강연해적해소풍험，계산결과표명，해소파산생후가재3～8h내전지절강성연안，해소파체1～3m，최대가체4m，차시절강연안면림Ⅲ～Ⅳ급해소풍험，체도엄몰지엄중엄몰등급。
A three‐layer tsunami model was established utilizing COMCOT numerical model to simulate the genera‐tion and propagation of 2011 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake tsunami event .The numerical results show that the errors between the computed arrive time and wave height and the observations at the DARTs near earthquake source and the tide gauge stations along Zhejiang coast are less than 15% .Studies show that Japan Nankai Trough ,Okinawa Trough and South Ryukyu Trench would be the major potential regional tsunami sources which may threaten Zhe‐jiang coast .Three hypothetical events of the above sources with Mw 9.1 ,Mw 8.0 and Mw 8.7 earthquakes were stud‐ied by the model to assess their impacts on Zhejiang coast .The numerical results show that the tsunami waves generated by three hypothetical events would take 3 to 8 hours to reach the Zhejiang coast area ,and the amplitude could vary between 1 and 3 m ,with the maximum wave up to 4 m .The simulation indicates that the study area would face the tsunami hazards with level Ⅲ or level Ⅳ ,which can cause inundation or serious inundation risk .