CAJ | 학술논문

为促进和改善粮食主产区的粮食生产和农业可持续发展提供理论参考，基于1987－2012年河北、内蒙古、辽宁等共13个粮食主产省（区）在财政支农、粮食生产投入产出、经济发展等方面的统计数据，利用 DEA-Malmquist 指数法测算了其农业全要素生产率，并采用面板数据模型分析了其影响因素。结果表明：人均 GDP 对粮食主产区的农业全要素生产率影响存在区域差异；教育和财政支农力度对其具有负影响；分税制改革、取消农业税与粮食直补政策对其影响不显著。江苏、江西、辽宁、山东和内蒙古的农业全要素生产率不受上述因素的影响，有待日后进一步研究。
위촉진화개선양식주산구적양식생산화농업가지속발전제공이론삼고，기우1987－2012년하북、내몽고、료녕등공13개양식주산성（구）재재정지농、양식생산투입산출、경제발전등방면적통계수거，이용 DEA-Malmquist 지수법측산료기농업전요소생산솔，병채용면판수거모형분석료기영향인소。결과표명：인균 GDP 대양식주산구적농업전요소생산솔영향존재구역차이；교육화재정지농력도대기구유부영향；분세제개혁、취소농업세여양식직보정책대기영향불현저。강소、강서、료녕、산동화내몽고적농업전요소생산솔불수상술인소적영향，유대일후진일보연구。
To promote and improve grain production and agricultural sustainable development in major grain producing area,based on statistical data about fiscal agriculture expenditure,input and output of grain production and economic development in 13 main grain producing provinces (regions ) during 1987-2012,including Hebei,Inner Mongolia and Liaoning.DEA-Malmquist index and OLS methods were employed to measure the agricultural total factor productivity and analyze the influencing factors. Results:the effects of per capita GDP on TFP is different between the regions,the effects of education and financial support for agriculture are negative, and the effects of reform of tax distribution system, abolishing agricultural taxes and grain supplement are insignificant.Agricultural total factor productivity in Jiangsu,Jiangxi,Liaoning,Shandong and Inner Mongolia is beyond the influence of above factors, which needs to be studied in the future.