CAJ | 학술논문

非洲橘硬蓟马（Scirtothrips aurantii ）是柑橘等植物的重要检疫性害虫。为明确该虫在我国的可能适生范围及检疫重要性，为制定防止其传入和扩散蔓延的预防措施提供理论依据，利用普利斯顿大学开发的最大熵生态位模型（MaxEnt）软件分析并预测非洲橘硬蓟马在全球及我国的适生区。结果表明：非洲南部、南美洲中东部、墨西哥中部、澳大利亚东海南、印度南部、东南亚中部和西亚的也门是非洲橘硬蓟马在全球的主要适生区；该虫在我国的高度适生区为海南大部和云南中部，中度风险区为贵州大部、广西大部、广东大部、福建东南沿海和四川西南部。2050年，温室气体 A1b（能源需求平衡）排放情景下，非洲橘硬蓟马的分布面积呈缩减趋势；A2a（能源需求高）和 B2a（能源需求低）排放情景下，该虫在全球及我国的高度和中度风险区面积均呈增加趋势，特别在 B2a 情景下，高风险区的面积增加显著。结论：非洲橘硬蓟马有入侵我国的风险，应加强对该虫的检疫工作，实行严格的风险管理。
비주귤경계마（Scirtothrips aurantii ）시감귤등식물적중요검역성해충。위명학해충재아국적가능괄생범위급검역중요성，위제정방지기전입화확산만연적예방조시제공이론의거，이용보리사돈대학개발적최대적생태위모형（MaxEnt）연건분석병예측비주귤경계마재전구급아국적괄생구。결과표명：비주남부、남미주중동부、묵서가중부、오대리아동해남、인도남부、동남아중부화서아적야문시비주귤경계마재전구적주요괄생구；해충재아국적고도괄생구위해남대부화운남중부，중도풍험구위귀주대부、엄서대부、엄동대부、복건동남연해화사천서남부。2050년，온실기체 A1b（능원수구평형）배방정경하，비주귤경계마적분포면적정축감추세；A2a（능원수구고）화 B2a（능원수구저）배방정경하，해충재전구급아국적고도화중도풍험구면적균정증가추세，특별재 B2a 정경하，고풍험구적면적증가현저。결론：비주귤경계마유입침아국적풍험，응가강대해충적검역공작，실행엄격적풍험관리。
S.aurantii is an important pest of citrus and object of cosmopolitan plants quarantine.In order to explore the possible scope and significance of quarantine, and provide theoretical basis for controlling the invasion and proliferation of S.aurantii,the potential distribution of S.aurantii in the world and China were predicted by using MaxEnt model,which is developed at Princeton University. Results:South of Africa,Mid-east of south America,mid of Mexico,east coast of Australia,south of India,mid of Southeast Asia and Yemen are the main suitable areas for S.aurantii in the world.In China the high risk areas are in Hainan and the mid of Yunnan,the mid risk areas are in Guizhou,Guangxi, Guangdong,southeastern of Fujian and south of Sichuan.With greenhouse gases under the A1b emissions scenario,by 2050, the areas of S.aurantii tend to decrease,while under A2a and B2a emissions scenarios,the high and medium risk areas tend to expand,especially under B2a the high risk areas will expand significantly.S.aurantii may be intruded in China in the future,so consequently strong quarantine program and strict risk management is needed to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.