CAJ | 학술논문

为深入了解农村城镇化进程所处的阶段，掌握农户对农村城镇化的参与意愿及影响因素，以建立可持续发展的农村城镇化模式，该文选取河西走廊张掖市甘州区为例，首先基于Landsat TM/OLI 1990年、2004年、2014年3期遥感影像提取甘州区农村居民点时空分布信息，利用GIS空间分析和统计方法分析甘州区农村居民点变化规律，揭示甘州区农村城镇化进程和特点。然后利用 Logistic 回归分析基于农户意愿的农村城镇化影响因素，最后构建了甘州区多元化的城镇化模式。主要的研究结果：1）从1990年到2014年，甘州区农村居民点数量和面积不断增加，特别是近10 a来农村居民点数量和面积增长显著大于前15年，且空间集聚效应明显。说明近10 a研究区城镇化进程显著加快，且具有较大的空间异质性。依据城镇化阶段空间异质性将甘州区农村城镇化划为成熟期，成长期和孕育期3个阶段；2）Logistic回归发现影响农户参与城镇化意愿的主要因素依次为：新型技能培训＞受教育水平＞年龄＞家庭外出务工人员＞选择医院类型＞人均耕地面积＞是否支持土地流转7个因素，这7个因素包含了农户的生计特征、年龄及耕地资源禀赋。依据这7类主要因素将甘州区农户划分为非农技能型、农工兼营型和农业主导型3类城镇化类型；该研究最后依据不同阶段的城镇化和不同的农户城镇化类型，组合构建了多元的城镇化模式。该研究可为理清农村城镇化进程，制定科学合理的农村城镇化政策提取理论依据和实践指导。
위심입료해농촌성진화진정소처적계단，장악농호대농촌성진화적삼여의원급영향인소，이건립가지속발전적농촌성진화모식，해문선취하서주랑장액시감주구위례，수선기우Landsat TM/OLI 1990년、2004년、2014년3기요감영상제취감주구농촌거민점시공분포신식，이용GIS공간분석화통계방법분석감주구농촌거민점변화규률，게시감주구농촌성진화진정화특점。연후이용 Logistic 회귀분석기우농호의원적농촌성진화영향인소，최후구건료감주구다원화적성진화모식。주요적연구결과：1）종1990년도2014년，감주구농촌거민점수량화면적불단증가，특별시근10 a래농촌거민점수량화면적증장현저대우전15년，차공간집취효응명현。설명근10 a연구구성진화진정현저가쾌，차구유교대적공간이질성。의거성진화계단공간이질성장감주구농촌성진화화위성숙기，성장기화잉육기3개계단；2）Logistic회귀발현영향농호삼여성진화의원적주요인소의차위：신형기능배훈＞수교육수평＞년령＞가정외출무공인원＞선택의원류형＞인균경지면적＞시부지지토지류전7개인소，저7개인소포함료농호적생계특정、년령급경지자원품부。의거저7류주요인소장감주구농호화분위비농기능형、농공겸영형화농업주도형3류성진화류형；해연구최후의거불동계단적성진화화불동적농호성진화류형，조합구건료다원적성진화모식。해연구가위리청농촌성진화진정，제정과학합리적농촌성진화정책제취이론의거화실천지도。
As Nobel economics laureate Stiglitz predicted that China’s rapid urbanization which started in twentieth Century 80 has taken a great influence on the process of global human society. In the past 10a, China has experienced the largest urbanization process in the world. Meanwhile, under the guidance of a series of agricultural policy, Chinese rural settlements have dramatically changed on spatial distribution and shape. As large rural population,the rural residential areas still are mainly living form for the agricultural laborers in the future for a long time in China. In order to encourage the coordinated development of regional economy,Chinese government has put forward in the New-type Urbanization promulgated (2014-2020) in March 2014. The New-type urbanization is a major way to solve three-dimensional rural issues and to promote the coordinated development of regional in Chinese rural area. The study area is located in the middle of Hexi Corridor in Gansu province of China (east longitude 100o6'~100o52', latitude 38o39'~ 39o24'), with the total area of 3.66×103 km2 and the population up to 18.95×104 in 2011. In the recent 10a with the rapid expansion of the urban boundary, a large number of cultivated lands around the borough were occupied. In the pastoral interior, so many rural settlements were built and expanded which cause a series of ecological and environmental problems. Considering the above reasons, in order to profoundly understanding the process stage of rural urbanization and the factors of farmers willingness to participate rural urbanization and to explore the suitable model of rural urbanization, this thesis uses the Ganzhou district in Zhangye city, Gansu province as an example, combined with temporal and spatial changes of rural residents as well as the farmers' urbanization willingness survey, to analysis the factors of rural urbanization and to explore rural urbanization possible mode in future. Therefore, this paper first extracts the spatial distribution information of rural urbanization based on the Landsat TM/OLI in 1990, 2004, 2014 images in Ganzhou District, and then uses GIS spatial analysis and statistical methods to analyze variation law and reveal the process and characteristics of rural residential in Ganzhou District. Later, we applied Logistic regression method to explore the factors base on the wishes of farmers. Finally we construct the urbanization pattern of Ganzhou district based on the above results. The main results of the study were as follows: 1) from 1990 to 2014, the number and area of rural residential Ganzhou district continues increasing, especially in the latest 10 years the rural residential area was significantly larger than 15 years ago, and the spatial agglomeration effect is obvious. From this result, we can infer that the urbanization process has accelerated significantly for nearly 10 years in the study area, and the process has a significant difference in space. According to the different stages of urbanization in Ganzhou district, we divided into 3 stages including mature period, growth period and incubation period; 2) Logistic regression found that the main factors affecting farmers to take part in urbanization as follows: new skills training education, farmer’s age, the number of family to migrant workers, the choice of hospital, per capital arable land, whether to support the land exchange. The primary factor of peasant household willingness to participate in new-type urbanization is concerns of survival skill after urbanization. The additional factors include their characteristics and status of rural health, such as the farmers’ age, education etc. Another important factor is the new land policy factors related to new-tape urbanization. The seven factors were classified into non-agricultural skill type, combination agricultural and industrial type and agricultural dominant; 3) According to the different urbanization stages and types of farmer urbanization, we constructed various models of rural urbanization to match with the land exchange model and rural livelihood model. This study specified the process of rural urbanization and provided the theory basis and the practice instruction for scientific and reasonable rural urbanization policymaking.