CAJ | 학술논문

磁暴灾害影响电力系统运行，破坏电力设备，甚至引发大面积停电事故。针对目前电力系统规划、调度决策和安全防御体系需要把握和量化电力系统磁暴灾害风险的需求，提出电力系统磁暴灾害风险评估方法与模型。首先分析电力系统磁暴灾害特点及其影响因素，在此基础上设计磁暴灾害下电力系统运行模拟程序，并借助软件平台搭建磁暴扰动与电力系统运行混合模型；之后在极值理论基础上建立磁暴扰动模型与概率测度，以此作为扰动量输入混合模型进行仿真模拟；最后从设备过载、节点电压越限和线路过载的角度定义基于熵理论的电力系统运行风险指标，建立电力系统磁暴灾害风险综合评估模型。利用GIC Benchmark算例系统进行仿真计算，结果验证了所提方法与指标的正确性和有效性。
자폭재해영향전력계통운행，파배전력설비，심지인발대면적정전사고。침대목전전력계통규화、조도결책화안전방어체계수요파악화양화전력계통자폭재해풍험적수구，제출전력계통자폭재해풍험평고방법여모형。수선분석전력계통자폭재해특점급기영향인소，재차기출상설계자폭재해하전력계통운행모의정서，병차조연건평태탑건자폭우동여전력계통운행혼합모형；지후재겁치이론기출상건립자폭우동모형여개솔측도，이차작위우동량수입혼합모형진행방진모의；최후종설비과재、절점전압월한화선로과재적각도정의기우적이론적전력계통운행풍험지표，건립전력계통자폭재해풍험종합평고모형。이용GIC Benchmark산례계통진행방진계산，결과험증료소제방법여지표적정학성화유효성。
The geomagnetic storm disasters influence the operation of power systems, and do harm the electrical equipment, and even lead to large-scale power outages. To satisfy the demand of the power system planning, scheduled decisions and security defense system for grasping and quantifying the power system risk due to geomagnetic storm disaster, the risk assessment methods and models for the risk resulted from the geomagnetic storm disaster were proposed. Firstly, the simulation program of the power system operation disturbed by geomagnetic storms was designed and the hybrid model of geomagnetic disturbance-power systems was built on the basis of the analysis for the characteristics and influencing factors of the power system geomagnetic storm disasters. Secondly, the model for geomagnetic disturbance probability measures based on extreme value theory was established, which can be the input data onto the hybrid model simulation. Finally, the risk indicators of power systems of equipment overload, the node voltage violations and line overloads were defined based on entropy theory, and the comprehensive assessment of the power system risk of geomagnetic disturbance was established. The results of the GIC Benchmark system simulation validated the correctness and validity of the method and the indicators.