CAJ | 학술논문

利用广西1981—2012年干旱、洪涝、低温冷害和风雹等4种农业气象灾害数据，并结合粮食作物单产资料，采用线性回归、滑动平均和灰色关联等分析方法，研究了广西近32年来农业气象灾害的变化特征及其对广西农业生产的影响。结果表明，1981—2012年4种农业气象灾害的受灾率变化均不明显，但具有阶段性特征。20世纪80年代至90年代初，干旱受灾率呈递增趋势，1988—1992年干旱受灾率居高不下，均在20%以上，90年代中后期干旱受灾率较小且变化平缓；21世纪以后广西又处于较旱阶段；洪涝、风雹、低温冷害在20世纪80年代至90年代初受灾率均相对较小，尤其是低温冷害少有发生；20世纪90年代中后期及以后，洪涝受灾率呈明显周期性波动减小，风雹受灾率呈明显周期性波动增大，低温冷害也呈周期性的暴发。4种农业气象灾害对农业影响程度为：对粮食作物、双季早稻、双季晚稻、玉米等，干旱＞洪涝＞风雹＞低温灾害；对单季稻而言，洪涝＞干旱＞风雹＞低温灾害，说明干旱和洪涝是影响广西农业生产的主要气象灾害。
이용엄서1981—2012년간한、홍로、저온냉해화풍박등4충농업기상재해수거，병결합양식작물단산자료，채용선성회귀、활동평균화회색관련등분석방법，연구료엄서근32년래농업기상재해적변화특정급기대엄서농업생산적영향。결과표명，1981—2012년4충농업기상재해적수재솔변화균불명현，단구유계단성특정。20세기80년대지90년대초，간한수재솔정체증추세，1988—1992년간한수재솔거고불하，균재20%이상，90년대중후기간한수재솔교소차변화평완；21세기이후엄서우처우교한계단；홍로、풍박、저온냉해재20세기80년대지90년대초수재솔균상대교소，우기시저온냉해소유발생；20세기90년대중후기급이후，홍로수재솔정명현주기성파동감소，풍박수재솔정명현주기성파동증대，저온냉해야정주기성적폭발。4충농업기상재해대농업영향정도위：대양식작물、쌍계조도、쌍계만도、옥미등，간한＞홍로＞풍박＞저온재해；대단계도이언，홍로＞간한＞풍박＞저온재해，설명간한화홍로시영향엄서농업생산적주요기상재해。
Based on the statistic data of drought,flood,wind-hail,low temperature,combining with grain yield data in Guangxi Province from 1981 to 2012,agro-meteorological disasters tendency variation and their impacting on grain yield in Guangxi Province was analyzed by using linear regression analysis, moving average and gray correlation analysis in this paper. The results showed that, in recent 32 years,the disaster-affected area rate change of wind-hail, while flood,drought and low temperature was not obvious, but existed phase characteristics. In 1980's and early 1990's, the disaster-affected area rate of drought was in increasing trend, especially, it t remained more than 20%during 1988-1992, while it was low and gentle changed in the middle and late 1990's,and recent period was in dry phase again. Relatively the disaster-affected area rate of blood and chilling damage and wind-hail was low, particularly chilling damage happened rarely. Since the middle of 1990's the disaster-affected area rate of flood presented to decrease, while wind-hail presented to increase obviously, chilling damage presented fluctuant trend. The impaction of agro-meteorological disasters on average grain yield and early rice yield and late rice yield and corn yield performed as, drought>flood>wind-hail>chilling damage, on single-crop rice as, flood>drought>wind-hail>chilling damage, which revealed drought and flood were major agro-meteorological disasters during grain production in Guangxi province.