CAJ | 학술논문

利用1999—2010年广州市新成立制造业企业数据，运用事件史分析方法考察宏观经济波动对企业生存绩效的影响。同时，采用非参数模型 KM模型比较不同类型企业的生存状况，选择半参数模型 Cox 比例风险模型探究企业生存绩效的顺周期效应，使用加速失效时间模型检验了 Cox 比例风险模型估计结果的稳健性。研究结果表明：企业生存绩效经历了顺周期效应；资金技术密集型企业生存绩效好于劳动密集型企业，但更易受到宏观经济波动的影响；外资企业较内资企业面临更高的死亡风险，且对宏观经济波动反应更敏感。
이용1999—2010년엄주시신성립제조업기업수거，운용사건사분석방법고찰굉관경제파동대기업생존적효적영향。동시，채용비삼수모형 KM모형비교불동류형기업적생존상황，선택반삼수모형 Cox 비례풍험모형탐구기업생존적효적순주기효응，사용가속실효시간모형검험료 Cox 비례풍험모형고계결과적은건성。연구결과표명：기업생존적효경력료순주기효응；자금기술밀집형기업생존적효호우노동밀집형기업，단경역수도굉관경제파동적영향；외자기업교내자기업면림경고적사망풍험，차대굉관경제파동반응경민감。
The paper investigates how macroeconomic fluctuations influences survival performance of new firms.Based on History analysis,this study then conducts an empirical analysis on the survival status of new manufacturing firms in Guangzhou from 1999 to 2010.Using KMmodel to compare the survival performance of different types of firms and cox proportional hazard model to explore the pro -cyclical effect of survival performance and accelerated failure time model to test the robustness of results.The results show that the survival performance of new firms experiences the pro -cyclical effect;Capital technology -intensive firms live better than labor -intensive ones,but they are more responsive to macroeconomic fluctuations;Foreign firms have a higher risk of death than domestic ones and are more vulnerable to macroeconomic fluctuations.