CAJ | 학술논문

城中村棚户区改造工程中，对改造工程中的不定开销波动方位进行准确预测，可以减少经济开支，提高建设效率。提出一种基于程控约束的城中村棚户改造工程不定开销波动预测算法。首先进行城中村棚户区改造工程中不定开销波动模型构建和参量设计，构建能拟合诸多不定因素影响因子的非线性动力系统，实现对城中村棚户区改造工程预算的不定开销控制模型构建。基于Lyapunov指数预测算法，把经济开销数据序列看作是一组非线性时间序列，进行波动预测，纳入具有程控约束性的影响因子群组，实现波动预测算法改进，降低预测标准方差。实验结果表明，该算法能有效预测和控制在改造工程中出现的不定开销的波动，波动幅度降低为0，从而节约工程预算，降低城建成本。
성중촌붕호구개조공정중，대개조공정중적불정개소파동방위진행준학예측，가이감소경제개지，제고건설효솔。제출일충기우정공약속적성중촌붕호개조공정불정개소파동예측산법。수선진행성중촌붕호구개조공정중불정개소파동모형구건화삼량설계，구건능의합제다불정인소영향인자적비선성동력계통，실현대성중촌붕호구개조공정예산적불정개소공제모형구건。기우Lyapunov지수예측산법，파경제개소수거서렬간작시일조비선성시간서렬，진행파동예측，납입구유정공약속성적영향인자군조，실현파동예측산법개진，강저예측표준방차。실험결과표명，해산법능유효예측화공제재개조공정중출현적불정개소적파동，파동폭도강저위0，종이절약공정예산，강저성건성본。
Village in city shantytowns renovation project, accurate prediction of project of indefinite cost fluctuation range, can reduce the cost, improve the efficiency of the construction. An uncertain cost prediction of village shantytown recon?struction project is proposed based on program-controlled constraint. Overhead fluctuation model construction and parame?ter design of indefinite village shantytown reconstruction project, construction of many indefinite factors fitting nonlinear dy?namic system factor, the indefinite cost control model of village in city shantytowns renovation project budget. Prediction al?gorithm based on Lyapunov index, the economic cost of data sequence as a set of nonlinear time series prediction, the im?provement of volatility prediction algorithm is realized, it can reduce the prediction variance. The experimental results show that, the algorithm can effectively predict and control indefinite cost fluctuation, it is reduced to 0, thus saving the project budget, reduce the construction cost.