CAJ | 학술논문

对2014年世界经济、航运、造船市场进行回顾，并对2015年的发展方向进行展望。2014年，世界经济总体属于不均衡复苏；航运市场总体表现低于预期，油运市场相对较好，商船队保有量增速持续放缓；新造船市场订单量过亿吨，液货船订单增多，新造船价格呈现中间高两端低的走势。预计2015年世界经济将继续呈现不均衡复苏态势，2014年大宗商品价格的暴跌将有利于世界经济的复苏；航运市场方面，预计集装箱运输市场和油运市场贸易运输需求增速超过运力增速，干散货运输市场继续供大于求；预测2015年油船订单将继续复苏，集装箱船和散货船市场维持2014年的景气度，海工市场看淡。
대2014년세계경제、항운、조선시장진행회고，병대2015년적발전방향진행전망。2014년，세계경제총체속우불균형복소；항운시장총체표현저우예기，유운시장상대교호，상선대보유량증속지속방완；신조선시장정단량과억둔，액화선정단증다，신조선개격정현중간고량단저적주세。예계2015년세계경제장계속정현불균형복소태세，2014년대종상품개격적폭질장유리우세계경제적복소；항운시장방면，예계집장상운수시장화유운시장무역운수수구증속초과운력증속，간산화운수시장계속공대우구；예측2015년유선정단장계속복소，집장상선화산화선시장유지2014년적경기도，해공시장간담。
Based on the review of economy, shipping and shipbuilding market in 2014, this paper forecasts the development trend in 2015. In 2014, the recovery of the world economy was unbalanced. The whole shipping market was below expectation, the oil transport market was better than others, and the growth of the merchant lfeet was gradually slowed down. The orders of new shipbuilding have reached over 100 million ton with the increasing orders of liquid cargo tankers, and the prices of new shipbuilding presented an arched shape. In 2015, the unbalanced recovery will continue for the world economy due to the beneift from the signiifcant price drop of bulk commodity in 2014. For the shipping market, the demand growth of the container and the oil trade transport market will exceed the capacity growth, and the dry bulk cargo transport market will remain oversupply. It is predicted that the tanker orders continues recovery in 2015, the market of containers and bulk carriers remains as 2014, and the market of offshore engineering slips into recession.