CAJ | 학술논문

为研究气候变暖对天水极端温度的影响，利用天水观测站1951—2013年逐年极端温度资料，运用气候倾向率、趋势系数、百分位法、滑动T检验等统计方法，分析极端温度对气候变暖的响应特征。结果表明：天水年极端最高（低）温度均呈显著性升高趋势，极端最高气温上升0.2℃/10 a，极端最低气温上升0.3℃/10 a，都通过了α=0.01的显著性检验；通过百分位法定义了极端温度的阈值，分析发现，极端最高气温与阈值的差值随时间序列的增加逐步增大，极端最低气温与阈值的差值随时间序列的增加逐步减少，对极端最高温度和极端最低温度利用滑动T检验法进行突变检验，在α=0.01显著性水平下，极端最低温度没有发生突变，而极端最高温度在1983年和1993年发生了2次十分明显的突变。
위연구기후변난대천수겁단온도적영향，이용천수관측참1951—2013년축년겁단온도자료，운용기후경향솔、추세계수、백분위법、활동T검험등통계방법，분석겁단온도대기후변난적향응특정。결과표명：천수년겁단최고（저）온도균정현저성승고추세，겁단최고기온상승0.2℃/10 a，겁단최저기온상승0.3℃/10 a，도통과료α=0.01적현저성검험；통과백분위법정의료겁단온도적역치，분석발현，겁단최고기온여역치적차치수시간서렬적증가축보증대，겁단최저기온여역치적차치수시간서렬적증가축보감소，대겁단최고온도화겁단최저온도이용활동T검험법진행돌변검험，재α=0.01현저성수평하，겁단최저온도몰유발생돌변，이겁단최고온도재1983년화1993년발생료2차십분명현적돌변。
Evaluation of extreme temperature changes in Tianshui under global warming is studied based on annual extreme temperature data from 1951 to 2013. To better understand the variability and long-term trend of extreme temperature, various mathematical statistics methods, including the climate tendency rate, climate tendency coefficient, percentile threshold value method and sliding T-test method, have been used. Results indicate that annual extreme temperature showed a significant increase trend over the past 63 years. The extreme high-temperature rate of increase is estimated as 0.2℃/10 a, while the extreme low-temperature increased by 0.3℃/10 a, which are all statistically significant at 99%confidence level. The threshold values of temperature extremes have been determined using the percentile threshold value method, we find that the difference between the extreme high-temperature (extreme low-temperature) and the corresponding threshold value increased (decreased) with the length of time series. The temporal characteristics of extreme high-temperature and extreme low-temperature trends are analyzed by using sliding T-test method. There is no significant abrupt change in extreme low-temperature at 99%confidence level. In contrast, the extreme high-temperature changes abruptly in 1983 and 1993.