CAJ | 학술논문

2013年各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组发布了第五次气候变化科学评估报告，以大量的观测分析和气候模式模拟证据，继续强调由于人类排放增加，全球正在变暖，未来将继续变暖的观点。本文综述分析全球变暖的几个深层次的科学问题，即多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的趋势，以此提出需进一步研究的科学问题。结果表明：需要进一步提高观测资料的质量；注意不同标准气候态时段对应数值的不同；应进一步改善气候模式模拟年代际变率的能力及研究近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞的原因，从而改善气候模式的模拟效果；造成预估未来全球气候变化的不确定性主要来自气候模式的差异、未来排放情景的差异及气候系统内部变率的影响和自然外强迫的作用。
2013년각국정부간기후변화전문위원회（IPCC）제일공작조발포료제오차기후변화과학평고보고，이대량적관측분석화기후모식모의증거，계속강조유우인류배방증가，전구정재변난，미래장계속변난적관점。본문종술분석전구변난적궤개심층차적과학문제，즉다투전구기온관측자료적차이、불동표준기후태시단적작용、20세기전구변난적검측화귀인급미래전구기온변화적추세，이차제출수진일보연구적과학문제。결과표명：수요진일보제고관측자료적질량；주의불동표준기후태시단대응수치적불동；응진일보개선기후모식모의년대제변솔적능력급연구근15 a전구변난감완화정체적원인，종이개선기후모식적모의효과；조성예고미래전구기후변화적불학정성주요래자기후모식적차이、미래배방정경적차이급기후계통내부변솔적영향화자연외강박적작용。
The working group 1 of IPCC has published the fifth science assessment report in 2013.Based on lots of evidences of observations and simulations by climate models,it continues to emphasize the key point that the global is warming at the present time and continues to warm in the future due to increasing human emissions.Several sci-entific issues of global warming in this paper will be summarized,such as differences among several datasets of ob-served global surface air temperature,effects of different basic climate periods,detection and attribution of global warming during the 20th century,and the trends of global temperature change in the 21st century.It raises the fur-ther research issues of global warming in the future.The key points are:the qualities of the observed data should be raised;it should be noticed that the different basic climate periods have various values;the capabilities of both dec-adal and interdecadal variabilities as simulated by the climate models would be improved,and the reasons of the hi-atus in global mean surface warming of the past 15 years have to be studied,therefore to revise the climate models;the uncertainties of projected the global climate change in future are from climate model differences,and various anthropogenic emission scenarios,as well as impacts of internal variability of climate system and actions of the nat-ural external forcing.