气象与环境学报
氣象與環境學報
기상여배경학보
JOURNAL OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT
2015年
1期
51-59
,共9页
高温热浪%PRECIS%SRES A2情景
高溫熱浪%PRECIS%SRES A2情景
고온열랑%PRECIS%SRES A2정경
High temperature and heat wave%PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)%SRES A2 scenario
随着全球变暖，应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式—HadAM3 p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果，模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明：全球PRECIS对基准时段（1961—1990年）的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段，未来情景下未来时段（2071—2100年）中国各地区的高温热浪事件的强度增加，发生频率增幅超过100％，且持续时间增加30％以上。此外，观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 hPa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下，武汉和哈尔滨地区500 hPa高度场的正距平呈增加的趋势，表明这些地区未来可能出现危害更严重的高温热浪事件。
隨著全毬變暖，應對高溫熱浪事件是未來現代化城市麵臨的難題之一。本文利用全毬模式—HadAM3 p提供的3組不同邊界場和初始場驅動區域氣候模式繫統PRECIS的輸齣結果，模擬未來情景下中國區域性高溫熱浪事件髮生頻率、彊度及持續時間的變化趨勢。結果錶明：全毬PRECIS對基準時段（1961—1990年）的高溫熱浪事件的髮生的頻率、彊度和持續時間及對應的大氣環流特徵具有較彊的模擬能力。相對于基準時段，未來情景下未來時段（2071—2100年）中國各地區的高溫熱浪事件的彊度增加，髮生頻率增幅超過100％，且持續時間增加30％以上。此外，觀測資料和模擬結果均錶明武漢和哈爾濱地區的高溫熱浪與500 hPa高度場的正距平密切相關。而未來情景下，武漢和哈爾濱地區500 hPa高度場的正距平呈增加的趨勢，錶明這些地區未來可能齣現危害更嚴重的高溫熱浪事件。
수착전구변난，응대고온열랑사건시미래현대화성시면림적난제지일。본문이용전구모식—HadAM3 p제공적3조불동변계장화초시장구동구역기후모식계통PRECIS적수출결과，모의미래정경하중국구역성고온열랑사건발생빈솔、강도급지속시간적변화추세。결과표명：전구PRECIS대기준시단（1961—1990년）적고온열랑사건적발생적빈솔、강도화지속시간급대응적대기배류특정구유교강적모의능력。상대우기준시단，미래정경하미래시단（2071—2100년）중국각지구적고온열랑사건적강도증가，발생빈솔증폭초과100％，차지속시간증가30％이상。차외，관측자료화모의결과균표명무한화합이빈지구적고온열랑여500 hPa고도장적정거평밀절상관。이미래정경하，무한화합이빈지구500 hPa고도장적정거평정증가적추세，표명저사지구미래가능출현위해경엄중적고온열랑사건。
With global warming,how to control high temperature and heat wave events will be one of the difficult problems that modern cities have to consider.An analysis of simulated distribution of the present(1961-1990)and future(2071-2100)high temperature heat wave events by three runs from a regional model(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies,PRECIS)in China under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario was presented.The results indi-cate that PRECIS could simulate better the frequency,intensity and duration of the high temperature and heat wave events as well as corresponding atmospheric circulation for the basic period(1961-1990).Compared with those of the basic period,intensity of high temperature and heat wave events will rise,and increasing amplitude of its fre-quency will exceed 100% and its duration will increase by 30% or above.Also,observed and simulated results suggest that high temperature and heat wave events have a close relation to positive anomaly of 500 hPa geopoten-tial height field over Wuhan and Harbin regions.Under future scenario,positive anomaly of 500 hPa geopotential height field will be in a increasing trend in the above two regions,and it suggests that it will probably be more seri-ous high temperature and heat wave events in these regions.
