工程经济
工程經濟
공정경제
ENGINEERING ECONOMY
2014年
12期
13-19
,共7页
工程造价%主成分分析%交叉均衡%数学模型
工程造價%主成分分析%交扠均衡%數學模型
공정조개%주성분분석%교차균형%수학모형
project cost%principal component analysis%cross equalization%mathematical model
在工程造价管理系统中，需要对大型工程项目的造价进行数学建模，实现统筹规划，节约开支。传统的工程造价数学建模中，采用大型建筑工程不定开销波动预测方法，把工程经济开销数据序列看作是一组非线性时间序列，并采用Lyapunov指数预测算法进行造价波动预测，传统算法没能有效考虑改造工程的复杂不定因素，预测精度不高。不能有效满足寿命期内维护成本现值最小化和状态指标最大化的原则。本文提出一种基于主成分分析和交叉均衡的大型工程项目的造价数学仿真模型。分析大型建筑工程项目的造价约束关系，得到大型工程项目的生产质量—效率—成本控制模型，采用主成分分析方法对建设工程造价预测的优化问题进行重构，得到大型工程建设的造价约束多目标贴近度数学模型，基于交叉均衡原理，根据累计方差的贡献程度，采用时间序列的估计方法对工程预算增长指数时间序列进行估计，结合Lyapunov指数预测算法，实现工程造价数学建模与造价预测算法的改进设计。仿真实验结果表明，该模型进行工程造价数学建模和预测，精度较高，均方误差较小。在相同的建筑体质量下节约工程造价成本23%，提高建筑质量，节约工程开销，具有较强的工程应用价值。
在工程造價管理繫統中，需要對大型工程項目的造價進行數學建模，實現統籌規劃，節約開支。傳統的工程造價數學建模中，採用大型建築工程不定開銷波動預測方法，把工程經濟開銷數據序列看作是一組非線性時間序列，併採用Lyapunov指數預測算法進行造價波動預測，傳統算法沒能有效攷慮改造工程的複雜不定因素，預測精度不高。不能有效滿足壽命期內維護成本現值最小化和狀態指標最大化的原則。本文提齣一種基于主成分分析和交扠均衡的大型工程項目的造價數學倣真模型。分析大型建築工程項目的造價約束關繫，得到大型工程項目的生產質量—效率—成本控製模型，採用主成分分析方法對建設工程造價預測的優化問題進行重構，得到大型工程建設的造價約束多目標貼近度數學模型，基于交扠均衡原理，根據纍計方差的貢獻程度，採用時間序列的估計方法對工程預算增長指數時間序列進行估計，結閤Lyapunov指數預測算法，實現工程造價數學建模與造價預測算法的改進設計。倣真實驗結果錶明，該模型進行工程造價數學建模和預測，精度較高，均方誤差較小。在相同的建築體質量下節約工程造價成本23%，提高建築質量，節約工程開銷，具有較彊的工程應用價值。
재공정조개관리계통중，수요대대형공정항목적조개진행수학건모，실현통주규화，절약개지。전통적공정조개수학건모중，채용대형건축공정불정개소파동예측방법，파공정경제개소수거서렬간작시일조비선성시간서렬，병채용Lyapunov지수예측산법진행조개파동예측，전통산법몰능유효고필개조공정적복잡불정인소，예측정도불고。불능유효만족수명기내유호성본현치최소화화상태지표최대화적원칙。본문제출일충기우주성분분석화교차균형적대형공정항목적조개수학방진모형。분석대형건축공정항목적조개약속관계，득도대형공정항목적생산질량—효솔—성본공제모형，채용주성분분석방법대건설공정조개예측적우화문제진행중구，득도대형공정건설적조개약속다목표첩근도수학모형，기우교차균형원리，근거루계방차적공헌정도，채용시간서렬적고계방법대공정예산증장지수시간서렬진행고계，결합Lyapunov지수예측산법，실현공정조개수학건모여조개예측산법적개진설계。방진실험결과표명，해모형진행공정조개수학건모화예측，정도교고，균방오차교소。재상동적건축체질량하절약공정조개성본23%，제고건축질량，절약공정개소，구유교강적공정응용개치。
In engineering cost management system, we need to proceed mathematical modeling for large engineering project cost to realize the overall planning and to cut down expenses. In the course of traditional project cost mathematical modeling ,we have adopted the variable cost fluctuation prediction method and regarded engineering economic cost data sequence as a set of nonlinear time series, and also we have adopted the Lyapunov index prediction algorithm to forecast the cost volatility. While the traditional algorithm cannot effectively consider the complex uncertain factors of the renovation projects, and then the accuracy is not high, it cannot effectively satisfy the principle of maintaining the minimization of the present cost value and the maximization of state indicator within the life span. A mathemati?cal model for the simulation of large engineering project cost is proposed based on principal component analysis and cross equalization. From analysis of the cost constraint relationship of large scale construction project, we can get the production quality-efficiency-cost control model of the large engineering project;by using the method of principal component analysis to reconstruct the optimization problem of construction project cost forecasting, we can get the cost constraints multi-objective close degree mathematical model for large-scale construction;based on the principle of cross equalization, according to the cumulative contribution degree of the variance, and using the method of time series, we estimate the time series for engineering budget growth index;and combining Lyapunov index prediction algorithm, the improvement for the design of the project cost mathematical modeling and cost calculation method can be achieved. The simulation experiment results show that the model has higher precision, and smaller mean square error. With it we can save project cost by 23%for building of the same quality, with the merits of improving construction quality as well as saving engineering costs, it has strong application value in engineering.
