CAJ | 학술논문

在梳理中国气象局现代气象业务发展，特别是现代天气业务发展思路和成效的基础上，结合公共气象服务面临的新形势和新需求，分析了省级以下现代天气业务集约化发展面临的新问题，提出了优化省市县三级的重点业务分工、改进预报预警技术和业务流程、完善相关业务标准、创新基层一体化业务服务方式、进而推进核心气象业务集约化发展的建议，包括：①实施“预报核心上移、服务重心下沉”战略，逐步建立适应气象服务体制改革要求的业务布局。强化省级大数据（基础数据、预报服务产品库和综合一体化平台等）环境部署、精准化天气预报技术路线及流程的革新、灾害性天气预警技术把关等业务核心地位，强化市级短期精细化要素预报订正和气象服务社会化的组织与协调，强化县级基层气象防灾减灾的社会化组织和协调、灾害性天气及气象灾害风险预警职能。②创新基层海量数值天气预报（NWP）产品集成应用方式，关注气象要素格点、情景预报技术发展，探索综合业务平台升级以及预报产品无缝隙、网格化、精细化制作技术。③进一步理清灾害性天气预报预警业务的上下级分工，创新管理模式，完善集约化业务平台和流程，整合专业化的信息发布平台和流程。④完善产品格式、标准和方法，推进业务质量检验评估体系建设。⑤强化多方式业务培训，提升业务科技创新能力，推进县级监测、预报和服务业务的一体化，全面提升县级精细化预报、灾害性天气及气象灾害预警服务能力。
재소리중국기상국현대기상업무발전，특별시현대천기업무발전사로화성효적기출상，결합공공기상복무면림적신형세화신수구，분석료성급이하현대천기업무집약화발전면림적신문제，제출료우화성시현삼급적중점업무분공、개진예보예경기술화업무류정、완선상관업무표준、창신기층일체화업무복무방식、진이추진핵심기상업무집약화발전적건의，포괄：①실시“예보핵심상이、복무중심하침”전략，축보건립괄응기상복무체제개혁요구적업무포국。강화성급대수거（기출수거、예보복무산품고화종합일체화평태등）배경부서、정준화천기예보기술로선급류정적혁신、재해성천기예경기술파관등업무핵심지위，강화시급단기정세화요소예보정정화기상복무사회화적조직여협조，강화현급기층기상방재감재적사회화조직화협조、재해성천기급기상재해풍험예경직능。②창신기층해량수치천기예보（NWP）산품집성응용방식，관주기상요소격점、정경예보기술발전，탐색종합업무평태승급이급예보산품무봉극、망격화、정세화제작기술。③진일보리청재해성천기예보예경업무적상하급분공，창신관리모식，완선집약화업무평태화류정，정합전업화적신식발포평태화류정。④완선산품격식、표준화방법，추진업무질량검험평고체계건설。⑤강화다방식업무배훈，제승업무과기창신능력，추진현급감측、예보화복무업무적일체화，전면제승현급정세화예보、재해성천기급기상재해예경복무능력。
In the carding Chinese Meteorological Bureau modern meteorological business development, especially the foundation of modern weather service development idea and the effectiveness of the new situation and new requirements, combined with the face of public meteorological services, analyses the new problems facing the provincial following modern weather business intensive development, put forward the optimization of province city county three class’s key business division, to improve the forecast and early warning technology and business process, improve the relevant business standards, innovation of basic business integration service mode, so as to promote the core of meteorological service intensive development proposals, including: the implementation of the “forecast service core up, center of gravity to sink”strategy, and gradually establish a meteorological service system to adapt to the requirements of the reform of the business layout. Strengthening the provincial large data (basic data, forecast service product library and integrated platform) deployment environment, accurate weather forecast technique the core status and process innovation, disaster warning technology weather guard service, strengthen the organization and coordination of the municipal short-term refined elements forecast and meteorological service socialization, strengthening social organization of county level meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation, and the coordination of the disastrous weather and meteorological disaster risk early warning function. The innovation of grassroots mass numerical weather prediction (NWP) product integration application way, attention to meteorological grid, scenario prediction technology development, exploration of seamless, integrated service platform and upgrade product forecast grid, meticulous production technology. To further clarify the disastrous weather forecast and warning service on the lower level of division of labor, innovation management, improve the intensive service platform and the process, information release platform and process integration of professional. The perfect product standards and methods, the evaluation system of business format, to promote the construction quality inspection. Strengthen the multi way business training, improve business ability of innovation of science and technology, promoting the integration of county level monitoring, forecasting and services, a comprehensive upgrade county-level fine forecast, disaster weather and meteorological disaster early warning service ability.