CAJ | 학술논문

利用线性拟合、M-K方法对山西省22个气象观测站1960—2010年的逐日风速资料进行了倾向、突变、逐年代变化等特征分析。研究表明，近50年来山西省平均风速存在明显的下降趋势，平均风速由20世纪60年代的2.16 m/s下降到21世纪初的1.86 m/s；不同时间段呈现不同的变化特征，1979—1989年风速出现显著下降，年均递减率达到0.046 m/s，变率远超出其他时段；对近50年山西省平均风速进行M-K检验后发现，在1982年出现明显的突变点。山西省四季平均风速均呈下降趋势，四季风速下降速率最快的为春季，冬季次之，夏季风速下降速率最慢。同样，四季风速均发生突变，突变时间点分布在1980—1985年间。除8月外，山西省各个月份风速也呈下降趋势，且均出现突变现象。
이용선성의합、M-K방법대산서성22개기상관측참1960—2010년적축일풍속자료진행료경향、돌변、축년대변화등특정분석。연구표명，근50년래산서성평균풍속존재명현적하강추세，평균풍속유20세기60년대적2.16 m/s하강도21세기초적1.86 m/s；불동시간단정현불동적변화특정，1979—1989년풍속출현현저하강，년균체감솔체도0.046 m/s，변솔원초출기타시단；대근50년산서성평균풍속진행M-K검험후발현，재1982년출현명현적돌변점。산서성사계평균풍속균정하강추세，사계풍속하강속솔최쾌적위춘계，동계차지，하계풍속하강속솔최만。동양，사계풍속균발생돌변，돌변시간점분포재1980—1985년간。제8월외，산서성각개월빈풍속야정하강추세，차균출현돌변현상。
The analysis of the characteristics of the yearly change using linear fitting, M-K method for 22 - 2010 1960 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province daily wind speed data were tendency, mutation. Research shows that, in recent 50 years, the average wind speed in Shanxi province has obvious trend of decline, the average wind speed decreased from 60 in twentieth Century to 2.16 m/s in early twenty-first Century 1.86 m/s; different time present different characteristics, from 1979 to 1989, average annual wind speed decreased significantly, decreasing rate of 0.046 m/s, variable rate far exceeded other time;M-K test for the past 50 years in Shanxi province average wind speed after the discovery, the emergence of the mutation point was evident in 1982. Shanxi Province, the average wind speed decreased with the four seasons, four seasons wind speed decreased the fastest rate for the spring, winter, summer wind speed of the slowest decline rate. Similarly, the four seasons wind velocity mutation, mutation point in time distribution in 1980-1985 years. Except for August, Shanxi province each month wind speed in a declining trend, and all mutant.