CAJ | 학술논문

利用NCEP再分析资料和CAMS中尺度云分辨模式，对2010-04-20—04-21发生在山西省的大到暴雨、局部强对流天气过程进行了客观模拟，主要得出以下4点结论：①对比2010-04-20T08：00—04-21T08：00的24 h降水预报与实况可见，山西省中南部降水情况与实况值接近，山西省北部降水情况略大于实况值，模拟域中降水量的最大值略小于实况值，雨带分布与实况非常接近。②2010-04-20T13：00—04-20T17：00，云系处于发展阶段，云内含水量和雪含水量呈增加趋势。其中，云水在2010-04-20T17：00，2.5 km处达到最大值0.24 g/kg，顶高为3.5 km，分布在1.2～3.9 km处，雪最大值为0.25 g/kg，位于0℃层上方；雨滴在暖层，雪和云水的增大区对应着雨的增加区，雪和云水是雨滴形成的主要粒子，且雪和云水是降水的主要原因；云系进入消散阶段，至2010-04-21T10：00降水基本结束。③云系在2010-04-20T10：00开始发展，2010-04-20T18：00到达旺盛阶段，随后开始逐渐消散，至2010-04-21T10：00云体基本消散。垂直上升气流的速度多为0.1 m/s，最大为0.5 m/s，符合层状云系的特征。④在8 km以上的区域，雪会通过凝华、雪花与冰晶碰并和冰晶向雪的自动转化等方式增长。其中，凝华增长起主要作用，最高所占比例为100%.在5～8 k m的区域，雪花通过凝华增长；在4～5 km的区域，雪花通过凝华和冰晶向雪的自动转化增长；在3～4 km的区域，雪花通过凝华和结淞增长，凝华增长最高所占比例为100%.
이용NCEP재분석자료화CAMS중척도운분변모식，대2010-04-20—04-21발생재산서성적대도폭우、국부강대류천기과정진행료객관모의，주요득출이하4점결론：①대비2010-04-20T08：00—04-21T08：00적24 h강수예보여실황가견，산서성중남부강수정황여실황치접근，산서성북부강수정황략대우실황치，모의역중강수량적최대치략소우실황치，우대분포여실황비상접근。②2010-04-20T13：00—04-20T17：00，운계처우발전계단，운내함수량화설함수량정증가추세。기중，운수재2010-04-20T17：00，2.5 km처체도최대치0.24 g/kg，정고위3.5 km，분포재1.2～3.9 km처，설최대치위0.25 g/kg，위우0℃층상방；우적재난층，설화운수적증대구대응착우적증가구，설화운수시우적형성적주요입자，차설화운수시강수적주요원인；운계진입소산계단，지2010-04-21T10：00강수기본결속。③운계재2010-04-20T10：00개시발전，2010-04-20T18：00도체왕성계단，수후개시축점소산，지2010-04-21T10：00운체기본소산。수직상승기류적속도다위0.1 m/s，최대위0.5 m/s，부합층상운계적특정。④재8 km이상적구역，설회통과응화、설화여빙정팽병화빙정향설적자동전화등방식증장。기중，응화증장기주요작용，최고소점비례위100%.재5～8 k m적구역，설화통과응화증장；재4～5 km적구역，설화통과응화화빙정향설적자동전화증장；재3～4 km적구역，설화통과응화화결송증장，응화증장최고소점비례위100%.
To analysis scale cloud resolving model data and CAMS using NCEP, of 2010-04-20 04-21 in Shanxi province to arrive greatly rainstorm, local strong convection weather process of objective simulation, the main draw the following 4 conclusions:1. The comparison of 2010-04-20T08:00 - 04-21T08:00 24 h precipitation forecast and live visible, precipitation and live province Shanxi South central values close to the northern part of Shanxi Province, precipitation is slightly larger than the real value, the analog domain precipitation maximum value is slightly less than the real value, distribution of rainfall and live very close to. The 2010-04-20T13:00-04-20T17:00, cloud in the development stage, liquid water content and water content of snow increased. Among them, the cloud water in 2010-04-20T17:00, 2.5 km and reached a maximum value of 0.24 g/kg, top height is 3.5 km, distributed in 1.2~3.9 km, snow a maximum value of 0.25 g/kg, located at 0 DEG C layer;rain in the warm layer, increase the area of snow and cloud water increases the corresponding rain, snow and cloud water is the main particles rain droplet formation, and snow and cloud water is the main reason of precipitation;cloud into the dissipation stage, to the basic end of 2010-04-21T10:00 precipitation. The clouds began to develop in the 2010-04-20T10:00, 2010-04-20T18:00 to reach the exuberant stage, then began to dissipate, to 2010-04-21T10:00 cloud disappeared. Vertical updraft speed is 0.1 m/s, maximum was 0.5 m/s, characteristics with stratiform clouds. The region above 8 km, the snow will grow by sublimation, snow and ice particles collide with and ice to snow automatic conversion of way. Among them, sublimation growth plays a major role, the highest proportion of 100%. in the 5~8 K m region, snow through sublimation growth;in 4~5 km region, snow and ice crystals by sublimation of automatic conversion to snow growth;in 3~4 km region, snowflake growth through sublimation and node song, sublimation growth of the highest proportion of 100%.