CAJ | 학술논문

为探明气象变化对河南省小麦气象产量的影响，利用1980—2012年河南省气象资料和小麦产量资料，对小麦气象产量和小麦生育期内的降水、气温和日照时数的变化规律进行分析，并将小麦气象产量与小麦越冬期和小麦生长期第二阶段的降雨、气温、日照时数进行灰色关联分析。结果表明，河南省小麦生长期内温度有波动上升的趋势；小麦生长期第二阶段的降雨量比越冬期间的降雨量平均多261 mm，但是年际间的变化规律不明确；小麦生育期第二阶段日照时数变化不明显，第一阶段有下降的趋势。小麦气象产量与气候变化有较大的关联性，温度和日照时数是影响小麦气象产量的决定性因素，近十年来，生长期第二阶段的降雨对小麦气象产量的影响变大。
위탐명기상변화대하남성소맥기상산량적영향，이용1980—2012년하남성기상자료화소맥산량자료，대소맥기상산량화소맥생육기내적강수、기온화일조시수적변화규률진행분석，병장소맥기상산량여소맥월동기화소맥생장기제이계단적강우、기온、일조시수진행회색관련분석。결과표명，하남성소맥생장기내온도유파동상승적추세；소맥생장기제이계단적강우량비월동기간적강우량평균다261 mm，단시년제간적변화규률불명학；소맥생육기제이계단일조시수변화불명현，제일계단유하강적추세。소맥기상산량여기후변화유교대적관련성，온도화일조시수시영향소맥기상산량적결정성인소，근십년래，생장기제이계단적강우대소맥기상산량적영향변대。
In order to clarify the influences of meteorological factors on wheat meteorological yield in Henan ,the meteorological data and material on wheat yield from 1980 to 2012 in Henan were used to analyse the discipline of the wheat meteorological yield,the temperature,the precipitation and the hours of sunshine,then the grey relational analysis between meteorological factors and wheat meteorological yield were carried out. The results showed that the temperature gradually increase;the average precipitation of the second stage is 261 mm more than the first stage in the wheat growth period,but the interannual change regulation is not clear;the change of the hours of sunshine is less obvious in the second stage,and there is a downward trend in the first stage. There is a great relevance between the wheat meteorological yield and the meteorological factors,moreover,the temperature and the hours of sunshine are the decisive factors on wheat meteorological yield. In the recent 10 years,the precipitation in the second stage had a greater impact on wheat meteorological yield.