CAJ | 학술논문

“至少有一个次级圈闭含有油气”的组合概率分析技术可评价圈闭的含油气性，评价结果反映了所有可能同时含有油气的圈闭组合形式。但受限于客观地质条件约束，有些圈闭是不应该同时出现的———不同圈闭组合形式对资源量计算有直接影响。为了计算符合地质模型约束的圈闭组合概率，界定了次级圈闭的含油气性定量评价模型的地质涵义，指出次级圈闭含油气性评价本质上是遵循贝叶斯分析原则，包括边际概率和条件概率两部分评价内容，分别体现全局成藏和局部成藏的可能性。首先，强调不同圈闭成藏时会存在明显的地质相关性，单个层圈闭的评价是以全局成藏可能性为前提进行评价；其次，通过对应边际概率的可能取值范围，区分了“完全独立”、“部分决定”和“完全决定”3种不同含油气性风险依赖类型，而不同依赖类型直接决定了到底哪些圈闭组合才符合当前地质认识；最后，为油气资源一体化评价软件平台（ PetroV）设计了一种改进的概率树分析技术，与不确定性体积法有机结合，实现了“基于含油气性风险依赖的概率组合加和”资源量计算方法。实例证明，要想获得较为客观的圈闭定量评价结果，需要充分考虑其所属不同次级圈闭间的含油气性风险依赖类型，并依此为基础才能给出对应合理地质模型解释的不确定性油气资源量分布结果。
“지소유일개차급권폐함유유기”적조합개솔분석기술가평개권폐적함유기성，평개결과반영료소유가능동시함유유기적권폐조합형식。단수한우객관지질조건약속，유사권폐시불응해동시출현적———불동권폐조합형식대자원량계산유직접영향。위료계산부합지질모형약속적권폐조합개솔，계정료차급권폐적함유기성정량평개모형적지질함의，지출차급권폐함유기성평개본질상시준순패협사분석원칙，포괄변제개솔화조건개솔량부분평개내용，분별체현전국성장화국부성장적가능성。수선，강조불동권폐성장시회존재명현적지질상관성，단개층권폐적평개시이전국성장가능성위전제진행평개；기차，통과대응변제개솔적가능취치범위，구분료“완전독립”、“부분결정”화“완전결정”3충불동함유기성풍험의뢰류형，이불동의뢰류형직접결정료도저나사권폐조합재부합당전지질인식；최후，위유기자원일체화평개연건평태（ PetroV）설계료일충개진적개솔수분석기술，여불학정성체적법유궤결합，실현료“기우함유기성풍험의뢰적개솔조합가화”자원량계산방법。실예증명，요상획득교위객관적권폐정량평개결과，수요충분고필기소속불동차급권폐간적함유기성풍험의뢰류형，병의차위기출재능급출대응합리지질모형해석적불학정성유기자원량분포결과。
The combination probability,the possibility that at least one segment contains hydrocarbons,can be used to assess the discovery probability of a trap.Obviously,‘at least one segment containing oil/gas’ reflects all possibilities of trap combinations.However,some traps should not be treated as one combination due to the constraint of special geo-logical conditions.The trap combinations have direct influences on the estimation of geological resource .In order to cal-culate trap combination probability under the constraint of geologic models,this paper first cleared geological meaning of current evaluation model for segment and demystified its mysterious hype .It is in fact a classical Bayes mathematical model consisting of marginal and conditional probability ,which quantifies separately the overall accumulation conditions or play-level and local accumulation conditions .Geological correlations do exist among different traps when hydrocar-bons accumulate in them,thus the evaluation of single trap should be based on the prerequisite of possibility of overall hydrocarbon accumulation.Secondly, corresponding to the value range of marginal probability , this paper recognizes three geological risk dependence types including full independence,partial dependence and full dependence.These de-pendence types can directly determine which traps are concordant with current geologic knowledge .Finally, an im-proved probability tree technique was designed for the petroleum integrated assessment software ( PetroV) .When inte-grated with the non-deterministic volumetric method , it can realize resource volume estimation through ‘summation of probability combinations based on geological risk dependency ’ .Case study shows that geological risk dependence types play a key role in quantitative evaluation of traps and mapping of uncertain petroleum resource distribution correspond-ing to reasonable geologic model interpretations.