CAJ | 학술논문

经济波动一直是宏观经济分析与预测中的经典问题，而经济周期拐点的及时识别对政府前瞻性经济政策的制定和企业投资经营战略的调整具有重要意义。鉴于我国目前尚没有权威机构对经济周期进行实时监测和发布，因而在划分经济周期和拐点识别时，往往局限于一种方法，不同方法有效性的比较缺乏一个基准参考。文章对国内外研究经济周期及其周期拐点定期的方法进行梳理和分析，依据经济周期定期方法的研究脉络，对主流的方法进行评述，并对我国经济周期定期进行展望，希望能在分析中国宏观经济波动特征和经济走势预测方面提供一些方法论参考和借鉴。
경제파동일직시굉관경제분석여예측중적경전문제，이경제주기괴점적급시식별대정부전첨성경제정책적제정화기업투자경영전략적조정구유중요의의。감우아국목전상몰유권위궤구대경제주기진행실시감측화발포，인이재화분경제주기화괴점식별시，왕왕국한우일충방법，불동방법유효성적비교결핍일개기준삼고。문장대국내외연구경제주기급기주기괴점정기적방법진행소리화분석，의거경제주기정기방법적연구맥락，대주류적방법진행평술，병대아국경제주기정기진행전망，희망능재분석중국굉관경제파동특정화경제주세예측방면제공일사방법론삼고화차감。
Economic fluctuation is a classic problem in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. It is of great significance to timely identify the business cycle turning points for both government's economic policy-making and strategy adjustment in business investment. Since up to date there is no authority department to publish the date of turning points of business cycles, we often face the lack of a dating reference when different dating methods are applied. This paper reviews the large and growing literature at home and abroad on business cycle dating methods and aims to investigate China's business cycle dating methods so as to offer some references and theoretic support.