CAJ | 학술논문

科学剖析省际耕地资源利用效率时空格局分异及机制，对推进省际耕地资源集约利用具有重要的理论及实践意义。该文以中国省域（除港、澳、台）作为研究案例区，从投入和产出2个维度构建指标体系，运用改进DEA（data envelopment analysis）模型测度1994—2012年中国省域单元耕地利用效率值；综合利用ESDA（exploratory spatial data analysis）关联模型、R/S（rescaled range analysis）分形模型等方法分析省际耕地利用效率时空格局分异特征，并通过Tobit回归模型揭示效率时空分异的驱动机制。结果表明：1994—2012年中国省际耕地利用效率DEA最优比例相对较小，空间表征出东部高、中西部低的分布格局；东部沿海、北部沿海、东北地区综合效率较高，呈上升发展趋势，技术效率与综合效率变化较相似，而规模效率呈现先上升后下降态势；全局上省际耕地利用效率呈现空间正自相关，以空间集聚为主要分布模式；局部上可划分4种类型：H-H（high-high）效率区、H-L（high-low）效率区、L-H（low-high）效率区、L-L（low-low）效率区，其中H-H效率区主要分布在长三角、京津地区，并逐渐向珠三角演化，而L-L效率区主要集聚在中国西北地区；未来省际耕地利用效率将表现出继续增长的分形特征，且增长高值区集聚在中国东部、北部沿海；经济发展水平、农业科技进步是影响效率空间分异的重要因素，自然环境条件是效率发展差异的基础因素，而农户自身特征也会对效率时空分异产生一定冲击；最后，从推动技术进步、调整产业结构、耕地整理流转、补偿激励机制等方面提出省际耕地集约利用政策建议。
과학부석성제경지자원이용효솔시공격국분이급궤제，대추진성제경지자원집약이용구유중요적이론급실천의의。해문이중국성역（제항、오、태）작위연구안례구，종투입화산출2개유도구건지표체계，운용개진DEA（data envelopment analysis）모형측도1994—2012년중국성역단원경지이용효솔치；종합이용ESDA（exploratory spatial data analysis）관련모형、R/S（rescaled range analysis）분형모형등방법분석성제경지이용효솔시공격국분이특정，병통과Tobit회귀모형게시효솔시공분이적구동궤제。결과표명：1994—2012년중국성제경지이용효솔DEA최우비례상대교소，공간표정출동부고、중서부저적분포격국；동부연해、북부연해、동북지구종합효솔교고，정상승발전추세，기술효솔여종합효솔변화교상사，이규모효솔정현선상승후하강태세；전국상성제경지이용효솔정현공간정자상관，이공간집취위주요분포모식；국부상가화분4충류형：H-H（high-high）효솔구、H-L（high-low）효솔구、L-H（low-high）효솔구、L-L（low-low）효솔구，기중H-H효솔구주요분포재장삼각、경진지구，병축점향주삼각연화，이L-L효솔구주요집취재중국서북지구；미래성제경지이용효솔장표현출계속증장적분형특정，차증장고치구집취재중국동부、북부연해；경제발전수평、농업과기진보시영향효솔공간분이적중요인소，자연배경조건시효솔발전차이적기출인소，이농호자신특정야회대효솔시공분이산생일정충격；최후，종추동기술진보、조정산업결구、경지정리류전、보상격려궤제등방면제출성제경지집약이용정책건의。
Cultivated land is the key resource and environment factor affecting human survival and development. With the progress of industrialization and urbanization in China, cultivated land resource is facing great challenges: cultivated land degradation, ecological environment pollution, lacking of cultivated land reserve, etc. Meanwhile, the growth rate of cultivated land resource investment is greater than the output, and the overall efficiency is relatively low. Especially, in the background of new urbanization, enhancing cultivated land’s regional use efficiency is of great importance for the supplement of agricultural products and the rise of farmers' income, and it has significant theoretical and practical values. Taking 31 provinces in China as the research object, the paper built up the evaluation system of cultivated land’s provincial use efficiency, and discussed the differentiation and mechanism of spatial-temporal pattern of cultivated land’s provincial use efficiency from 1994 to 2012, using improved DEA (data envelopment analysis) method, ESDA (exploratory spatial data analysis), R/S (rescaled range) analysis method and Tobit regression model. The results showed that: DEA optimal ratio of cultivated land’s provincial use efficiency was relatively small, and spatial characteristics showed a distribution pattern of the East high and the Mid-west low; the comprehensive efficiency was higher in the eastern coastal, northern coastal and northeastern areas, where a rising trend was presented; technical efficiency change was similar to the comprehensive efficiency, and scale efficiency showed a trend of first upward and then downward; cultivated land’s provincial use efficiency had a positive autocorrelation characteristics, and there existed a spatial cluster feature; on the local, efficiency of provincial cultivated land use could be divided into four types: H-H (high-high) efficiency areas, H-L (high-low) efficiency areas, L-H (low-high) efficiency areas and L-L (low-low) efficiency areas; partial H-H efficiency areas were mainly located in the Beijing-Tianjin area and the Yangtze River Delta, and extended to the Pearl River Delta; L-L efficiency areas formed a stable "L"-shaped pattern which were mainly concentrated in the western China; efficiency of cultivated land use had obvious fractal characteristics and showed a growing trend that the areas with significant growth were located in the eastern coast and northern coast. Economic development and agricultural technology advancement were important factors that influenced the spatial differentiation of cultivated land’s provincial use efficiency, and natural condition was the basis factor; farmer’s characteristics have a certain impact on the efficiency of spatial-temporal differentiation. Lastly, this paper put forward some suggestions for improving cultivated land’s provincial use efficiency to promote the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resource in China: 1) Strengthen the agricultural science and technology, cultivate talents with agricultural technology, improve farmers’ farming skills, and constantly promote new technologies; 2) Increase the intensity of cultivated land consolidation, guide the redrawing and circulation of cultivated land, and promote scale operation and comprehensive production capacity of cultivated land; 3) Adjust regional agricultural industrial structure, change the traditional way of extensive use, and promote agricultural modernization development; 4) Build “high efficiency, high compensation” operation mechanism, encourage reasonable utilization of cultivated land resource in different regions, and gradually implement cultivated land use policy from “quantitative” to “efficient”. Meanwhile, it should be pointed out that this paper also has somewhat limitations. This paper only chose the experimental data from 1994 to 2012, so the time scale was narrow, and evolution differentiation characteristics of cultivated land’s use efficiency was ignored in a longer time scale. Based on two basic dimensions of the input and output, the measured results of cultivated land’s use efficiency were objective, but the microscopic index of science and technology investment such as improved crop varieties and field management techniques was also needed to be considered. In addition, the output should focus more on environmental bearing capacity of cultivated land resource. On mechanism analysis, the factors of policy system and farmer willingness to which the cultivated land’s regional use efficiency had a positive response were not deeply discussed. Next, based on system (macro) and farmers (micro) perspectives, studying the mechanism of spatial-temporal pattern differentiation of cultivated land’s regional use efficiency would be the domain and direction for the deep research.