气象学报(英文版)
氣象學報(英文版)
기상학보(영문판)
ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA
2015年
1期
106-118
,共13页
李瑞青%吕世华%韩博%高艳红
李瑞青%呂世華%韓博%高豔紅
리서청%려세화%한박%고염홍
CMIP5%multi-model ensemble mean%South Asian summer monsoon (SASM)%El Ni?no%all-India monsoon rainfall index (AIMRI)
The South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) precipitation is analyzed based on reanalysis datasets and historical simulation results from 23 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that most models reproduce well the climatological pattern of SASM precipita-tion, but the main rainfall period lags that of the reanalysis by one month. The relationship between the simulated SASM precipitation and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) is quite similar to the reanal-ysis data. This is attributed to the well-reproduced Walker cell anomaly in the tropical zone. It is projected that the negative correlation between SASM precipitation and SSTAs in the eastern equatorial Pacifi c will weaken and even reverse to a positive one in the period 2070–2096 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenario with strong external forcing (RCP8.5), while the change of the correlation under moderate forcing (RCP4.5) still has great uncertainty.