CAJ | 학술논문

随着空中交通流量的增加，冲突探测在空中交通管理系统中的作用越来越重要。该文提出了一种概率型冲突探测算法，计算向前看时间内的总体冲突概率。基于飞机3维布朗运动模型，飞机的预测航迹可以表示为确定航迹外加布朗运动扰动。对于两飞机速度为常值的运动情况，冲突概率可以表示为做布朗运动的飞机进入运动的飞机保护区的概率，使用坐标变换和Bachelier-Levy定理进行估计；对于两飞机运动为非匀速运动情况，预测航迹则可以使用足够多速度为分段常值的片段来近似，计算出每一片段内的冲突概率，并给出了向前看时间内总体冲突概率的上下界。与蒙特卡罗仿真结果比较，算法满足冲突探测精度要求，对及时发现冲突和冲突解决具有重要意义。
수착공중교통류량적증가，충돌탐측재공중교통관리계통중적작용월래월중요。해문제출료일충개솔형충돌탐측산법，계산향전간시간내적총체충돌개솔。기우비궤3유포랑운동모형，비궤적예측항적가이표시위학정항적외가포랑운동우동。대우량비궤속도위상치적운동정황，충돌개솔가이표시위주포랑운동적비궤진입운동적비궤보호구적개솔，사용좌표변환화Bachelier-Levy정리진행고계；대우량비궤운동위비균속운동정황，예측항적칙가이사용족구다속도위분단상치적편단래근사，계산출매일편단내적충돌개솔，병급출료향전간시간내총체충돌개솔적상하계。여몽특잡라방진결과비교，산법만족충돌탐측정도요구，대급시발현충돌화충돌해결구유중요의의。
With the increasing of the air traffic flow, conflict detection plays an increasingly important role in air traffic management system. A probabilistic conflict detection algorithm is proposed. Overall conflict probability in look-ahead time is calculated. The aircraft predicted trajectory is expressed as deterministic trajectory plus a Brownian motion perturbation. For the case of constant aircraft speed, conflict probability is expressed as the probability of an aircraft with Brownian motion perturbation entering a time-varying moving protection zone, the probability is approximated using coordinate transformation and Bachelier-Levy theorem. For the case of aircraft with non-constant speed, predicted trajectory can be approximated by a large enough number of constant speed segments. Conflict probability of each segment is calculated and the overall conflict probability bounds in look-ahead time are given. Compared with Monte Carlo simulations, the proposed algorithm is accurate for conflict detection and it is useful to detect and avoid conflicts in air traffic management system.