CAJ | 학술논문

如何实现雷电故障的预警及跳闸概率的计算，对于电力系统防御雷击故障具有积极意义。提出了基于三时次雷区信息的电网雷击跳闸概率计算新方法。首先，根据每个时次的雷电监测信息，基于图像识别技术识别雷电发生区域；然后，以优化的方法确定雷区发展最佳轨迹；根据当前时次及之前的连续2个时次的雷区信息及发展轨迹，构成三时次相关雷区信息，并进行下一时次雷区相关信息的预报，包括雷区特性变化量(雷区面积、雷电流强度、雷区落雷概率)；进而，计算位于雷击预报范围内的输电线路跳闸概率。该方法因利用了较多的雷电监测信息而具有较高的雷区预测准确性，相应的线路雷击跳闸概率也具有较高的准确率而可以作为雷击跳闸预警指标。算例证明了所述方法的有效性。
여하실현뇌전고장적예경급도갑개솔적계산，대우전력계통방어뢰격고장구유적겁의의。제출료기우삼시차뢰구신식적전망뢰격도갑개솔계산신방법。수선，근거매개시차적뇌전감측신식，기우도상식별기술식별뇌전발생구역；연후，이우화적방법학정뢰구발전최가궤적；근거당전시차급지전적련속2개시차적뢰구신식급발전궤적，구성삼시차상관뢰구신식，병진행하일시차뢰구상관신식적예보，포괄뢰구특성변화량(뢰구면적、뇌전류강도、뢰구락뢰개솔)；진이，계산위우뢰격예보범위내적수전선로도갑개솔。해방법인이용료교다적뇌전감측신식이구유교고적뢰구예측준학성，상응적선로뢰격도갑개솔야구유교고적준학솔이가이작위뢰격도갑예경지표。산예증명료소술방법적유효성。
Lightning faults early warning and trip probability calculation have a positive significance for power system protection against lightning faults.A novel algorithm for calculating lightning trip probability based on lightning subareas information at three adjacent time intervals is proposed.Firstly,lightning subareas are identified based on image recognition technology according to lightning monitoring information at each time interval.Then the optimal trajectory of lightning subareas is determined by the optimization method.The lightning subareas information at current time interval,previous adjacent time interval and the trajectory of lightning subareas constitute the lightning subareas information at three adjacent time intervals, based on which the relevant information,including variations of lightning subareas characteristics (area,lightning current intensity,lightning probability of the lightning subarea)at next time interval are forecasted.Finally,the trip probability of the transmission lines within the forecasted lightning subareas are calculated.Since more lighting monitoring information is utilized,the method proposed has higher precision of lighting area forecast.Accordingly,the lines trip probability also has higher precision and could be used as the lighting warning index.The results of the samples show the validity of the proposed method.