CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用与SDA法相结合的LMDI分解模型，根据能耗增长特点分四个阶段探讨了包含能源强度、中间投入结构变动的技术效应和包含消费、投资、出口变动的最终需求效应对中国能源消耗增长的时段驱动模式。结果表明：（1）1997－2010年间，各阶段“三驾马车”引领的最终需求效应不单是规模庞大，也应相对稳定，能耗增长的异常波动主要取决于技术效应；（2）能源强度效应一直起着节能降耗的积极作用，而中间投入结构自2002年后向高耗能依存特征转变，成为能耗增长的推动因素；（3）2006年开始实施的能源强度政策有效改变了能耗增长轨迹，而国际金融危机的突然爆发扭曲了政府政策执行的初衷、方式和效率。
본문운용여SDA법상결합적LMDI분해모형，근거능모증장특점분사개계단탐토료포함능원강도、중간투입결구변동적기술효응화포함소비、투자、출구변동적최종수구효응대중국능원소모증장적시단구동모식。결과표명：（1）1997－2010년간，각계단“삼가마차”인령적최종수구효응불단시규모방대，야응상대은정，능모증장적이상파동주요취결우기술효응；（2）능원강도효응일직기착절능강모적적겁작용，이중간투입결구자2002년후향고모능의존특정전변，성위능모증장적추동인소；（3）2006년개시실시적능원강도정책유효개변료능모증장궤적，이국제금융위궤적돌연폭발뉴곡료정부정책집행적초충、방식화효솔。
This paper using a LMDI decomposition model discussed the technical effect and the final demand effect to the drive mode of China's energy consumption growth in four phases.Results show that:First, during 1997 -2010, the final demand effect is not only vast, should also be relatively stable, so abnormal fluctuations in energy consumption growth should largely depend on the technical effect;Second, Energy intensity effect has played a positive role in energy-saving and consumption reducing, but the structure of intermediate input due to turning to energy-hungry dependent structure since 2002 became the promoting factors of energy consumption growth;Third, the implementation of the energy intensity of policy starting from 2006 effectively changed the driver path of China's energy consumption growth, but the international financial crisis erupting distorted the original intention of government policies, methods and efficiency.