CAJ | 학술논문

以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例，探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征，以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上，分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型，进行了日超越概率10％的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估；同时，结合地震危险性区划成果，开展了50年超越概率10％的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上，利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件，开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征（ Runout）模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。
이천월문천진구적성란철로룡문산관건단위례，탐색제출료강진우동배경하중대공정장구다척도활파위험성평고방법。이용신식량모형반연평고료문천지진유발적동진활파공간분포특정，이차위전제개전료구역화국지량충공간척도적활파위험성예측평고。재구역랑대척도상，분별이용가능최대강우량예측방법화신식량모형，진행료일초월개솔10％적최대강우량시공분포예측급기유발활파적위험성평고；동시，결합지진위험성구화성과，개전료50년초월개솔10％적기본지진동유발활파적위험성평고。재국지장참척도상，이용기우붕탑운동과정모의적Rockfall Analyst연건，개전료시자완대교주변붕탑운동학특정（ Runout）모의화위험성평고。활파화붕탑위험성평고적결과분별위철로규화선선화장참방호설계제공료불동척도적지질안전의거。
Taking Longmenshan key section of Chengdu?Lanzhou railway in Wenchuan seismic region as an example, we explore a sort of multi?scale landslide hazard assessing method for major project site in strong earthquake afflicted area. The spatial distribution characteristics of coseismic landslides induced by Wenchuan Ms 8?0 earthquake are inverted assessed with information value model. On this basis, landslide hazard assessments in regional and local scale are carried out. In regional railway corridor scale, the temporal and spatial distribution of daily maximum precipitation of 10% exceedance probability is predicted by Probable Maximum Precipitation method. Due to such probable precipitation, the landslide hazard is assessed with information value model. Also, combining seismic hazard zoning result, the landslide hazard is assessed due to basic earthquake ground motion of 10% exceedance probability in 50 years. In local railway station scale, with Rockfall Analyst software based on rolling stone kinematics simulation, runout characteristics and hazard of rockfall around Shiziyuan bridge site are simulated and assessed. All of the landslide and rockfall hazard assessment results above provide geological safety references in different scales for railway plan and line selection, site landslide defense design respectively.