干旱地区农业研究
榦旱地區農業研究
간한지구농업연구
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN THE ARID AREAS
2015年
1期
219-224,232
,共7页
王荣晓%徐文修%只娟%田彦军
王榮曉%徐文脩%隻娟%田彥軍
왕영효%서문수%지연%전언군
气候变暖%阿勒泰地区%春玉米%播种期%种植布局
氣候變暖%阿勒泰地區%春玉米%播種期%種植佈跼
기후변난%아륵태지구%춘옥미%파충기%충식포국
climate warming%Altai region%spring maize%seeding time%cultivation pattern
采用阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961—2010年逐日平均气温资料，使用线性趋势分析、累积距平、t检验并基于Kriging插值法，分析近50年日平均气温稳定通过≥10℃的初日、终日、持续日数和积温的时空变化特征，揭示春玉米播种期及种植布局的变化规律。结果表明，阿勒泰地区近50年≥10℃积温呈现初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数延长、积温增加的现象，其倾向率分别为0．3、1．3、1．6 d·10a－1和57．1℃·10a－1，且突变年份均发生在20世纪90年代中期。各县市春玉米播种期提前3～8 d ，生长季延长6～11 d。突变前青河东部不能种植春玉米，晚熟品种不能种植或种植风险较大。随着气候不断变暖，春玉米不同熟性品种可种植区逐渐东扩，各县市春玉米在品种熟性上均发生了改变，表现为由不能种植到种植早熟、早熟向中（晚）熟、中晚熟向晚熟品种的变化。
採用阿勒泰地區7箇氣象站1961—2010年逐日平均氣溫資料，使用線性趨勢分析、纍積距平、t檢驗併基于Kriging插值法，分析近50年日平均氣溫穩定通過≥10℃的初日、終日、持續日數和積溫的時空變化特徵，揭示春玉米播種期及種植佈跼的變化規律。結果錶明，阿勒泰地區近50年≥10℃積溫呈現初日提前、終日推遲、持續日數延長、積溫增加的現象，其傾嚮率分彆為0．3、1．3、1．6 d·10a－1和57．1℃·10a－1，且突變年份均髮生在20世紀90年代中期。各縣市春玉米播種期提前3～8 d ，生長季延長6～11 d。突變前青河東部不能種植春玉米，晚熟品種不能種植或種植風險較大。隨著氣候不斷變暖，春玉米不同熟性品種可種植區逐漸東擴，各縣市春玉米在品種熟性上均髮生瞭改變，錶現為由不能種植到種植早熟、早熟嚮中（晚）熟、中晚熟嚮晚熟品種的變化。
채용아륵태지구7개기상참1961—2010년축일평균기온자료，사용선성추세분석、루적거평、t검험병기우Kriging삽치법，분석근50년일평균기온은정통과≥10℃적초일、종일、지속일수화적온적시공변화특정，게시춘옥미파충기급충식포국적변화규률。결과표명，아륵태지구근50년≥10℃적온정현초일제전、종일추지、지속일수연장、적온증가적현상，기경향솔분별위0．3、1．3、1．6 d·10a－1화57．1℃·10a－1，차돌변년빈균발생재20세기90년대중기。각현시춘옥미파충기제전3～8 d ，생장계연장6～11 d。돌변전청하동부불능충식춘옥미，만숙품충불능충식혹충식풍험교대。수착기후불단변난，춘옥미불동숙성품충가충식구축점동확，각현시춘옥미재품충숙성상균발생료개변，표현위유불능충식도충식조숙、조숙향중（만）숙、중만숙향만숙품충적변화。
To reveal the rules of changes in seeding time and planting pattern of spring maize ,based on the daily temperature data of 7 meteorological stations in Altai region during 1961—2010 ,the spatiotemporal changes of the first date ,final date ,duration ,and accumulated temperature were analyzed when the temperature reached 10℃ or higher , using the methods of linear regression ,accumulative anomaly ,T-test and Kriging based mixed interpolation .The results showed that accumulated temperature ,duration ,first date ,and final date ,all showed a significant increasing tendency in recent 50 years ,with the rates of 57 .1 ℃·10a-1 ,1 .6 d·10a-1 ,1 .3 d·10a-1 ,0 .3 d·10a-1 ,respectively .All changes took place in mid 90 s .Climate warming resulted in 3~8 day advance of seeding time and 6~11 day delay of the growth of spring maize .Before the climate change ,east Qinghe region was not suitable for the cultivation of spring corn ,nor the late maturing cultivars due to the incapability or the high risks in planting .With the climate warming , planting areas for different varieties of spring corn gradually expanded eastward ,and the cultivar maturities in different counties and cities showed variations .The results showed that regions that were not suitable for planting now were capable of planting early mature cultivars ,regions that were planted with early mature cultivars were good for mid-season/late ma-ture ones ,and regions that used to have mid-season/late mature varieties were now to have planted with late varieties .
