CAJ | 학술논문

针对东北三省强对流天气短时预报的难题，首先统计分析了该地区强对流天气发生的时空分布特征，发现2008—2012年东北三省强对流天气主要发生在14—20时，而在08—14时相对较少；主中心区基本维持在辽宁西部地区，发生频数呈“南北多、中间少”的态势，且月平均发生频数逐月减小。其次，以哈尔滨、长春和沈阳站为例，利用实况探空资料计算对流参数，并对强对流天气历史样本进行预报技巧评分，确定对流参数阈值，回报TSS评分最大可达0.477。最后，通过2013年的独立样本的试报，检验新的阈值。检验结果表明，TT、TTMod和MK指数对东北三省的强对流天气有较好的指示意义。综合分析历史和独立样本，利用08时探空资料计算各指数作预报时，哈尔滨和沈阳地区TT、TTMod指数的预报效果相对较好，而长春地区TTMod和MK指数预报效果较好。
침대동북삼성강대류천기단시예보적난제，수선통계분석료해지구강대류천기발생적시공분포특정，발현2008—2012년동북삼성강대류천기주요발생재14—20시，이재08—14시상대교소；주중심구기본유지재료녕서부지구，발생빈수정“남북다、중간소”적태세，차월평균발생빈수축월감소。기차，이합이빈、장춘화침양참위례，이용실황탐공자료계산대류삼수，병대강대류천기역사양본진행예보기교평분，학정대류삼수역치，회보TSS평분최대가체0.477。최후，통과2013년적독립양본적시보，검험신적역치。검험결과표명，TT、TTMod화MK지수대동북삼성적강대류천기유교호적지시의의。종합분석역사화독립양본，이용08시탐공자료계산각지수작예보시，합이빈화침양지구TT、TTMod지수적예보효과상대교호，이장춘지구TTMod화MK지수예보효과교호。
Aiming at the problem of strong convection weather nowcasting of Northeast region, firstly, the spatial-temporal distribution of strong convection weather was analyzed by using the routing sounding and surface observation data from 2008 to 2012. The results show that severe convective weather mainly occurred in the north and the south parts , with a dominant center located in the west of Liaoning Province. The severe convective weather mainly occurred during 14:00-20:00 in the Northeast China. Secondly, taking Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang stations as examples to calculate the stability indexes. By comparing the skill scores of the historical sample test results , the maximum TSS skill score of severe convective weather reached 0.477. Finally, through the 2013 independent sample test report, the results show that there was a good indication of TT, TTMod and MK indexes for the strong convection weather in the northeast region. According to the comprehensive analysis of the history and the independent samples, the forecast effect of TT, TTMod indexes in Harbin and Shenyang area was relatively good, while the TTMod and MK indexes forecast effect was better in the Changchun area by using 08:00 radiosonde data to calculate the index.