大地构造与成矿学
大地構造與成礦學
대지구조여성광학
GETECTONICA ET METALLOGENIA
2015年
1期
1-14
,共14页
下地壳非均匀流动%热流体撞击%地震预测%鲁甸%景谷%康定地震
下地殼非均勻流動%熱流體撞擊%地震預測%魯甸%景穀%康定地震
하지각비균균류동%열류체당격%지진예측%로전%경곡%강정지진
lower crustal uneven flow%thermal fluid impacting%earthquake prediction%the Ludian,Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes
继中长期预测了芦山地震之后，笔者中期预测了鲁甸、景谷和康定地震。例如，鲁甸地震的预测震级为7级左右或6.5级以上(实为里氏6.5级)，地点为北纬26°~29°、东经101.5°~105°(实际震中北纬27.1°，东经103.3°)，发震时间可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(实际为2014年8月3日)。本文总结了鲁甸、景谷、康定地震和陆内地震热流体物理综合预测的原理、方法和步骤；阐明了在开放复杂地球系统多级物质循环热构造背景下，大陆地壳非均匀流动(“热河”)过程中热能的源、汇、释过程与热灾害链及其地震之间的关系；提出了根据热灾害链时空结构和活动“热河”地震空区相结合进行长期和中期地震预测，与根据热流体直接和间接前兆异常开展立体监测和短临地震预测有机结合的新思路。根据当前热灾害链的演变规律和异动“热河”地震空区分布，进一步分析了西南和华北地震的发展形势，强调华北(特别是东北)的震情极为严峻，短临地震监测和预测已刻不容缓。
繼中長期預測瞭蘆山地震之後，筆者中期預測瞭魯甸、景穀和康定地震。例如，魯甸地震的預測震級為7級左右或6.5級以上(實為裏氏6.5級)，地點為北緯26°~29°、東經101.5°~105°(實際震中北緯27.1°，東經103.3°)，髮震時間可能是2014年5月至2015年5月(實際為2014年8月3日)。本文總結瞭魯甸、景穀、康定地震和陸內地震熱流體物理綜閤預測的原理、方法和步驟；闡明瞭在開放複雜地毬繫統多級物質循環熱構造揹景下，大陸地殼非均勻流動(“熱河”)過程中熱能的源、彙、釋過程與熱災害鏈及其地震之間的關繫；提齣瞭根據熱災害鏈時空結構和活動“熱河”地震空區相結閤進行長期和中期地震預測，與根據熱流體直接和間接前兆異常開展立體鑑測和短臨地震預測有機結閤的新思路。根據噹前熱災害鏈的縯變規律和異動“熱河”地震空區分佈，進一步分析瞭西南和華北地震的髮展形勢，彊調華北(特彆是東北)的震情極為嚴峻，短臨地震鑑測和預測已刻不容緩。
계중장기예측료호산지진지후，필자중기예측료로전、경곡화강정지진。례여，로전지진적예측진급위7급좌우혹6.5급이상(실위리씨6.5급)，지점위북위26°~29°、동경101.5°~105°(실제진중북위27.1°，동경103.3°)，발진시간가능시2014년5월지2015년5월(실제위2014년8월3일)。본문총결료로전、경곡、강정지진화륙내지진열류체물리종합예측적원리、방법화보취；천명료재개방복잡지구계통다급물질순배열구조배경하，대륙지각비균균류동(“열하”)과정중열능적원、회、석과정여열재해련급기지진지간적관계；제출료근거열재해련시공결구화활동“열하”지진공구상결합진행장기화중기지진예측，여근거열류체직접화간접전조이상개전입체감측화단림지진예측유궤결합적신사로。근거당전열재해련적연변규률화이동“열하”지진공구분포，진일보분석료서남화화북지진적발전형세，강조화북(특별시동북)적진정겁위엄준，단림지진감측화예측이각불용완。
Author has successfully predicted the Ludian, Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes after his long-medium-term forecasting of the Lushan quake. The predicted elements for the Ludian earthquake include aboutMs 7.0 or above 6.5 (actually Ms 6.5), 26°–29°N and 101.5°–105 °E (the actual epicenter 27.1° N and 103.3°E), and earthquake time from May 2014 to May 2015 (Actual time August 3, 2014). This paper summarizes the principles, methods and procedures of the Ludian, Jinggu and Kangding earthquakes and intracontinental earthquakes by physical and comprehensive prediction based on the thermal fluid; and illustrates the relationship between the source, accumulation, release process of thermal energy within uneven crustal flow (“thermal river”), thermal disaster chain, and earthquakes under the thermal tectonic background of multi-scale material recycling in open complex Earth system; also proposes a new workflow that combines long-medium-term earthquake prediction based on spatial-temporal structure of thermal disaster chain and seismic gap along the active “thermal river” and short-term to impending earthquake prediction based on the direct and indirect precursory anomalies of thermal fluid. According to evolution of the ongoing disaster chains and seismic gaps, the author further analyzes the earthquake trend in the Southwest China and North China, and emphasizes the great possibilities of strong earthquakes in the North China (especially the Northeast China). The short-term and impending earthquake monitoring and prediction in these areas demand relevant departments take immediate action.
