工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & ECONOMY
2015年
1期
37-48
,共12页
经济增长稳定性%潜在经济增长率%产业结构%需求结构
經濟增長穩定性%潛在經濟增長率%產業結構%需求結構
경제증장은정성%잠재경제증장솔%산업결구%수구결구
economic growth stability%potential growth%industrial structure%demand structure
经济增长稳定性对经济增长的质量和国民福利水平有重要影响。本文在评估改革开放以来我国经济增长稳定性的基础上，定量分析了各因素对经济增长稳定性的影响程度。分析结果表明，经济增长稳定性主要受产出缺口、需求结构、产业结构和投资者所有制结构等四大因素的影响，当产出缺口增加1％时，经济增长稳定指数降低0畅97个点；当需求结构（最终消费率）提高1％时，经济增长稳定指数上升0畅79个点；当产业结构提高1％时，经济增长稳定指数上升1畅47个点；当所有制结构（国有经济占比）上升1％，经济增长稳定指数降低0畅62个点。
經濟增長穩定性對經濟增長的質量和國民福利水平有重要影響。本文在評估改革開放以來我國經濟增長穩定性的基礎上，定量分析瞭各因素對經濟增長穩定性的影響程度。分析結果錶明，經濟增長穩定性主要受產齣缺口、需求結構、產業結構和投資者所有製結構等四大因素的影響，噹產齣缺口增加1％時，經濟增長穩定指數降低0暢97箇點；噹需求結構（最終消費率）提高1％時，經濟增長穩定指數上升0暢79箇點；噹產業結構提高1％時，經濟增長穩定指數上升1暢47箇點；噹所有製結構（國有經濟佔比）上升1％，經濟增長穩定指數降低0暢62箇點。
경제증장은정성대경제증장적질량화국민복이수평유중요영향。본문재평고개혁개방이래아국경제증장은정성적기출상，정량분석료각인소대경제증장은정성적영향정도。분석결과표명，경제증장은정성주요수산출결구、수구결구、산업결구화투자자소유제결구등사대인소적영향，당산출결구증가1％시，경제증장은정지수강저0창97개점；당수구결구（최종소비솔）제고1％시，경제증장은정지수상승0창79개점；당산업결구제고1％시，경제증장은정지수상승1창47개점；당소유제결구（국유경제점비）상승1％，경제증장은정지수강저0창62개점。
The stability of economic growth has a significant impact on the quality of economic growth and national welfare . Based on its assessment of the stability of the growth of China's economic reform and opening up , this paper makes the quantitative analysis of each factor on economic growth stability . The results show that the stability of economic growth is mainly affected by the four factors of the output gap , the demand structure , industrial structure and investor ownership structure , etc ., when the output gap increases by 1% , the index of economic growth stability decreased 0.97 points ;when the structure of demand (final consumption rate ) increased by 1% , the index of economic growth stability rose 0.79 points;when the industrial structure increased by 1% , the index of economic growth stability rose 1.47 points;when the ownership structure (state-owned economy accounting ) increased by 1% , the index of economic growth sta-bility decreased 0.62 points .
