CAJ | 학술논문

2013年日本的国债余额达到以1008.6万亿日元、GDP占比为247%，位列世界第一，备受国际瞩目。甚至有学者断言，下一个爆发主权债务的国家必将是日本。因而研究日本的主权债务问题具有迫切性和现实意义。本文回顾了日本的国债发展史，利用跨期预算模型结合相关数据实证检验日本经济所能承受的最大债务规模，并和现实债务规模对比指出其不可持续。本文结合数据和分析，批驳了“日本债务规模可持续”观点的相关论据，给出了日本必将爆发主权债务危机的判断，并分析阐述了对我国的影响及我国的应对之策。
2013년일본적국채여액체도이1008.6만억일원、GDP점비위247%，위렬세계제일，비수국제촉목。심지유학자단언，하일개폭발주권채무적국가필장시일본。인이연구일본적주권채무문제구유박절성화현실의의。본문회고료일본적국채발전사，이용과기예산모형결합상관수거실증검험일본경제소능승수적최대채무규모，병화현실채무규모대비지출기불가지속。본문결합수거화분석，비박료“일본채무규모가지속”관점적상관론거，급출료일본필장폭발주권채무위궤적판단，병분석천술료대아국적영향급아국적응대지책。
s:In 2013 Japan, with a size of debt of 1008.6 trillion yen and 247%of its GDP, is now ranked as the first in the world. Some scholars even judged that Japan is the next country, who will face sovereign debt crisis. Therefore, the study of Japan’s sovereign debt issue is of great importance in theory and practice. This paper looks into the development history and severity of Japanese sovereign debt by horizontal and vertical comparison, and researching the characteristics of Japan’s sovereign debt issue from the composition of its creditors. The second part of this paper mainly focuses on the empirical test of the utmost amount of debt that Japanese government can stand by utilizing the inter-temporal budget model in combining with related data, which proves the in-sustainability of Japan’s debt. In the last part, by summarizing the above analysis and data, this paper debates with the opinions that supporting the sustainability of Japan’s debt problem and gives the conclusion that Japan’s sovereign debt crisis is inevitable. On basis of this conclusion, the paper predicts the possible influence on China, and finds ways and means to cope with Japan’s crisis.